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What caused TSLA stock to go up/down today?

What caused TSLA stock to go up/down today?

Hoping this thread might pick up steam as TSLA stock goes through some amazing intra-day and open/closing swings due to the large short interest (I'm assuming).

For instance: Yesterday the stock dipped really low at closing so I bought. Today it jumped back up and I sold for a healthy profit.

Why did the stock dip yesterday and then rise so much today? I didn't see any news that would justify it.

Captain_Zap | October 10, 2014

Typically after announcements the price goes down the day after, but after news is dispersed and digested over the weekend the price goes up. The slouching overall market seems to be having an impact.

Mike83 | October 10, 2014

I love it. Buying some more shares here.

David Trushin | October 10, 2014

I think the stock is going down because of the model X crickets. They haven't said a word about it since they said they would deliver the first models in December and ramp up in 2015. But you still can't order one, In the role out cycle of the model s, you could access the design studio 6 to 9 months before the first one rolled off the line.

Jamon | October 10, 2014

After last night's event I was worried the world had caught on to Elon & TM's brilliance and I would be all out of buying opportunities. Now, here I am buying up more shares this morning! The party continues!!

tes-s | October 10, 2014

X crickets makes sense. The AWD S shows February delivery - I don't think the X would be any sooner than that.

But they are capacity-constrained, so doesn't really matter if they sell S or X, and long as they don't sell S 3 X. :)

rochec | October 10, 2014

Lack of X and 3 news. Most investors are idiots.

Brian H | October 14, 2014

tes-s;
X or ≡ hints or glimpses.

nomoDinos @ca.us | October 16, 2014

Awww crap. Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!

More shares for Nomo... sigh...

It is interesting reading back on speculation that TSLA was far overpriced... at $40 :)

Captain_Zap | October 16, 2014

Hedge funds are playing games and trying to make up for some heavy losses. It's like Tug of War.

hcwhy | December 8, 2014

Any ideas?

tes-s | December 8, 2014

Ideas about the 4% drop today?

I figure just normal drift due to no news to keep it up. At 20% off the highs, there are probably plenty of believers out there to keep it from going much lower.

Don't listen to me though...when I bought my car it was at $100 and I thought it was expensive, and never imagined it would break $200.

Bighorn | December 8, 2014

Delivery delays and EPA #s are two potential culprits.

1BadNerd | December 8, 2014

Financial news seems to be focused on delivery delays and big drop in oil prices.

EVino | December 8, 2014

There is no causality The market is not rational. Looking for correlation is fruitless.

When you shake a tree, weakly-hanging fruit will fall. When a hedge fund decides to sell, they will do just enough to trigger your stop loss, triggering more sell orders. Don't be the fruit.

TSLAholic | December 8, 2014

Seriously, if you have to ask every single time it's down, sell it and invest in something you believe in. You'll sleep better at night.

TaoJones | December 8, 2014

I'm thinking about adding shares at 199. Although if earnings are missed, I could end up adding them again at 160.

It would be nice if there was just a wee bit of accountability for analysts who, for example in the past couple of weeks, downgrade the stock yet with a price target of 320. Really? Make that clown buy at least 100 shares, I say.

aljjr2 | December 8, 2014

No rhyme or reason. Elon just mentioned that BMW's Carbon Fiber (and sells to manufacturers) had promise in strength and weight -- an obvious consideration for an EV. Someone immediately jumped to that was the cause of the Model X delay (unfounded) due to weight concerns. Next the press said the Model X Falcon Wing doors would be changed to Carbon Fiber in exchange for battery technology and investment in Tesla. BMW refuted the claim of investment...and so on and so on.

No wonder it is difficult to get any official information. Any comments are taken to an extreme. Then rumors abound. Now that the fabrications/rumors are not true the stock suffers.

There's a reason a BULL is the symbol for Wall Street... Herd mentality.

AmpedRealtor | December 8, 2014

There's a reason a BULL is the symbol for Wall Street... Herd mentality.

I'm inclined to believe it's for other, more obvious reasons... :P

Captain_Zap | December 8, 2014

@aljjr2

Too many are eager to start a rumor. Check sources and check the background of the source. Due diligence is best.
Lots of wild speculation goes on with this company.

jmcm2110 | December 8, 2014

Rumors???? No way.

I'm waiting to hear when I can get the Falcon Wing doors retrofitted on my S. Hear it will be soon...

Too busy for rumors....

Brian H | December 9, 2014

jmcm;
You needn't wait.
Easy-peasy.
1) Obtain an acetylene torch
2) Take a "before" picture
...

tes-s | December 9, 2014
Mathew98 | December 9, 2014

Someone please stop me! I can't help with the delayed cyber Monday fire sale.

The college funds for the kiddies are all dried up. How many shares will I end up by year end???

Don't anyone dare me to sell the MS to buy even more shares...

@JT - Don't tell my wife about the former college funds...

jvs11560 | December 9, 2014

http://dailykanban.com/2014/12/musks-pants-fire-september-record-high-de...

I know I'm going to catch a lot of negative feedback about posting this article, but the author does bring up some interesting fcats and figures.

I just want to know the truth. As an investor, don't I have a right to know how a company is really doing????

Are we all buying into the sizzle??? What bothers me is this; If the article is true, then we are all being manipulated.

JAD | December 9, 2014

I just took the opportunity to buy shares, probably not enough to cause the upswing;)

I just try to buy for the long run during short term drops.

Red Sage ca us | December 9, 2014

Seriously? Assuming 13.5¢ per kWh in an electric car that achieves 300 Wh per mile, even a gasoline car that got 40 MPG would need 'cheap' fuel as low as $1.62 per gallon to be competitive mile-for-mile. Gasoline would have to drop below $1.01 per gallon to match at 25 MPG. The majority of Tesla Model S competitors are below a combined 20 MPG EPA rating.

sule | December 9, 2014

@jvs11560: All investors are always manipulated. The only thing that changes is how and how much. That article is interesting but one point is neglected. Tesla is not just "made-to-order". It is also production constrained and going through growing pains. They produce and deliver in batches with some pauses in between for factory retooling, dealing with adjustments, etc.

Not trying to be for of against anyone. I am not a direct investor because I am too "disillusioned" (from my perspecticd) to be able to make judgments that would precede same judgements from other investors and, thus, be profitable to me. I am a mathematician and an engineer by profession and at heart and all this looks like a gambling in a mass illusion during which I am not "smoking" the same thing.

jvs11560 | December 9, 2014

@sule What I do not understand is that, according to what I read, Mr Musk is on the record stating that he will sell 35,000 Teslas in the US by the end of 2014. Based on the data I've seen, I do not believe they'll even break 20,000 units. According to their filings, the US is still their biggest market.

And the other article, that I just read, makes me wonder what happened in Norway??? (See link)

http://dailykanban.com/2014/12/toothless-tesla-norways-record-breaking-c...

It seems as if there are way too many inconsistencies, and very little transparency. Maybe it's time the shareholders demanded a little more accountability.

Iowa92x | December 9, 2014

Bertel the author is a, a little frumpy.

Captain_Zap | December 9, 2014

Welcome back, jvs11560.

You might want to consider the fact that Tesla is not like traditional manufacturers and they make cars to order. Orders are batched together by region to save shipping costs. Only the Norwegians know which month their ship comes in. It could be October, November or December. Plucking one month out of the year will not tell you much.

sule | December 9, 2014

@jvs11560: I can't defend or promote anyone's numbers. I'd have to spend more time digging out how they came to them. There is a delay between order, production, shipping and delivery. I don't know how reliable is registration data. I can tell you that I got my VIN in January 2014 and it was 32xxx, now they are in 6xxxx range I think. That too is unreliable as many VIN numbers could be skipped, making things worse but they can also be reused - i.e. Same number can be used for different terms, when other letters are different - i.e. they could be "per trim".

I know first hand how well the data is "baked" before being presented to investors. Nothing illegal, just deciding which parts of data to present, how to explain it, how to distribute numbers over time - from multiple companies.

I have also observed that companies with awesome and effective products don't get investor confidence and fail because all the wrong reasons - it is hard to educate investors.

Finally, and I am 100% convinced in this, stock prices have very little to nothing to do with their companies. It is all about what future investors will think or be advised to do without really understanding anything that the company actually does. We can talk about that on a separate thread, but in this case the best investors are those who can either direct (legally, yes, this is possible) or predict what other investors will do - not the company performance.

jvs11560 | December 9, 2014

@Captain_Zap It's not just one month. Actually, the one month that Tesla brags about being the best selling car in Norway, is an anomaly in itself. Elon is very eager to state he doesn't post monthly sales figures, but he was quick to point out March of 2014 sales figures. If you look at the 6 months preceding March of 2014 the average registrations are approximately 350.

If you average the registrations since march of 2014, it is a little over 200. That is a huge decline. The ICE VW Golf has sold over twice the amount of Teslas YTD in Norway for 2014.

Everyone keeps telling me that Tesla is not like a traditional automotive manufacturer. Well, Washington Mutual was supposed to be a different type of Bank. I lost my shirt on that one, so don't blame me for being a little cynical.

If you look at the attached link, you should come to the same conclusion that I did. Demand is down, not constrained production.

http://dailykanban.com/2014/12/musks-pants-fire-september-record-high-de...

Even if Tesla delivers 9,000 cars this quarter, they'll be at about 26,000 deliveries for the year.

Pungoteague_Dave | December 9, 2014

I get a bit weary of this production constrained thing. It simply isn't true. No US buyer waits more than a few months, same as a made to order Porsche or BMW or Mini. I have had a Ford F-150 on order for much longer than my incoming P85D. The latest, greatest Ford won't be delivered until late January despite an August order, but the newest top of the line Tesla is being delivered about 60 days after order. I had the same experience in late 2012 when our S85 was delivered about two months after order confirmation. If anything, Tesla delivers car orders faster than any of their competition. Despite claims to the contrary, this is not a production-constrained company. Some foreign markets may feel like it takes too long to get a car, the reasons there are obviously about logistics and market presence.

sule | December 9, 2014

@Pungoteague_Dave: if not production constrained, why not do some marketing?

EVino | December 9, 2014

I think folks are confusing production-constrained versus supply-constrained. Tesla is producing them as fast as they can (former) but can't make enough (latter).

Red Sage ca us | December 9, 2014

jvs11560 wrote, "...Mr Musk is on the record stating that he will sell 35,000 Teslas in the US by the end of 2014."

No, he isn't. Tesla Motors' goal for worldwide deliveries of Model S during 2014 was 35,000 units -- not the US alone. That number was revised downward to 33,000 after the retooling at Fremont in July/August 2014 took a bit longer to iron out than originally expected.

Elon Musk is on record projecting 40% of capacity will be for the US. Coincidentally, that comes to 14,000 of 35,000 and independent sources say Tesla Motors had sold through 13,800 cars in the US by the end of November 2014. Pretty much right in target, even with production issues.

Oh, and that worldwide number? Don't be surprised if end-of-the-year, last minute deliveries to China, Europe, Japan and Australia, along with hasty construction and delivery of 'D' variants of Model S get Tesla Motors beyond the 35,000 deliveries this year anyway. This, barring issues with customs, inclement weather, or sea serpents taking down freighters, of course.

Now if you want to ridicule someone, I'm fair game:

• I thought the Model X would have been available for test rides by October 2014. I was wrong.
• I thought that a handful of lucky Model X buyers would have had the Design Center open for them around the same time, in a super-secret fashion, under NDA. I was wrong.
• I thought they would be getting their cars at a special event, held the week before Christmas 2014. I was wrong.
• I thought Tesla Motors was low-balling production & delivery estimates for 2014 and that they would reach the 40,000-42,000 range this year, worldwide. I was wrong.
• I thought deliveries in the United States of America and Canada for 2014 would match total production worldwide from 2013 at ~22,000. I was wrong.
• I thought the reception of Tesla Motors in China would be lukewarm or tepid, instead of brisk and robust. I was wrong.

So, obviously... I am far less reliable than Elon Musk. Good thing I'm not running Tesla Motors, eh?

lvaneveld | December 9, 2014

@jvs11560, just to be clear the 35,000 unit projection for the year was never made for USA or North America. The projection was always a worldwide target, and has been dropped back to 33,000 for the year. With the recent delays in P85D production I would not be surprised if that results in another drop in the annual total. It may just be a diversion from the D to non D 60's and 85's. Either way I will expect it to impact total annual revenue as well as gross and net profit/loss.

At this point I am not too concerned since if you order today anything other than a P85D you have to wait till March. If demand were a real problem I would have expected them to not discontinue the four vehicle configurations they are now not selling. Remember that they initially showed 8 drivetrain options, now cut back to only four.

David Trushin | December 9, 2014

In my view, the majors have conceded the luxury ev market to tesla but are putting together defensive plans to take the mass market away from tesla. If tesla hits their target of 2017, this will be moot; tesla's product will beat the pants over anything they could offer. However, with the open ended delays with the model x, the market is losing confidence that tesla will be even close to 2017 with the model 3. A model x ordering capability would go a long way towards bringing the stock back, if it happens soon. Until then, the x is just vaporware.

sule | December 9, 2014

@Julian: I was trying to avoid the distinction and bring both of those into the same term as I can't with any reliability claim to know which one (or both) are the case. They say they are supply constrained on batteries but they also seem constrained on how fast they can make them once they have supplies...

Captain_Zap | December 9, 2014

In the end, it doesn't matter how many they deliver by Dec 31. They have a bigger, better and faster production line. A better product too. I'm cool with that.

sule | December 9, 2014

@Captain_Zap: Same here.

EVino | December 9, 2014

@sule: Tesla has a homegrown ERP (formerly called MRP) system. They have some pretty clever manufacturing planners. The bottom line is, no matter what term to use, they don't have unsold finished (new) goods. The waiting list drives the bill of materials and they're making it as fast as they can assemble the BOM. Very likely Panasonic holding up the BOM.

Tesla has three major challenges--get that battery supply up, increase battery energy density, and achieve cost parity with ICE cars.

Red Sage ca us | December 9, 2014

Pungoteague_Dave: Maybe you just live in a special Zip Code that makes you eligible for '60 Days or Less!' service whenever you order a top-of-the-line Tesla Motors product?

~or~

Maybe you could acknowledge that a Tesla Motors that was NOT production constrained will have been able to fulfill every US order placed in the sixty days since October 9, 2014 for any of eight different drivetrain options regardless of color, seats, or various options packages.

Oh, sure... Tesla Motors could probably build the Tesla Model S faster than they do. They don't though, because they are continually fine tuning the design, and the manufacturing processes.

It is not set in stone. It is a work in progress. It is a spectacular automotive achievement that they are not yet satisfied with.

So they take their time with it. Honing it, enabling new features, determining the best possible procedures for manufacturing it. All the while, maintaining quality as a primary consideration above and beyond quantity.

Because really, that is what it exists for as a Generation II vehicle. The Model S represents a practice platform that Tesla Motors will use to establish the very basis upon which the entire internal culture of the company is built. How they design, build, sell, market, and promote the electric vehicle industry.

This is what we build. This is how we do it. This is who we are.

Grinnin'.VA | December 10, 2014

@ Pungoteague_Dave | December 9, 2014

I get a bit weary of this production constrained thing. It simply isn't true. No US buyer waits more than a few months

Sure. And IF I'm lucky, Tesla will deliver my S85D "Late February, 2015" as now projected, roughly 4.5 months after I confirmed my order. Would you like to estimate the likelihood of my order-to-delivery delay will be under 5 months?

Go Tesla!

AmpedRealtor | December 10, 2014

@ PD,

I get a bit weary of this production constrained thing. It simply isn't true. No US buyer waits more than a few months...

Uh... I hate to break it to you, but the production constraint is the reason you have to wait a few months. If Tesla weren't production constrained, you would have your car much sooner or be able to pick it from a selection of inventory vehicles. But you can't.

Red Sage ca us | December 10, 2014

Oh, to be able to order a Tesla Model S the way sales are done on Home Shopping Network!

"Look at this stunning Tesla Model S P85D! We have them in three shades: Red, Black, and White. There are only 1,500 on hand, so pick up the phone, and call now! You can still have them delivered to your home in time for Christmas! For a limited time only, you can have one of your very own for six, low, low, monthly payments of only $25,000! Get those credit cards ready..."

My Stepmom would probably have three by now...

Mystery Lab | December 10, 2014

Red Sage, sule, and Captain, +1000 ... eh?

jvs11560 | December 10, 2014

Here is what I do not get. When GM and Toyota ran this plant, it produced a lot of cars. In 2006 they produced:

2006: Production at the Nummi plant peaks at 428,632 cars and trucks

In the last few years, The average was well over 300,000 cars per year. Tesla is known for having (1) moving part (Except for the suspension).

Why can't a company, that has been in business for 10 years, produce more vehicles to meet demand? By their own admission, the car is much simpler that an ICE car. Less moving parts, very little maintenance, and yet they can't produce 50,000 cars in one year???

First, it was the batteries, now because of retooling for the D. With all the automation and talent in that building, they can't build less than 10% of what GM build in a bad year.

Can someone tell me why????

AmpedRealtor | December 10, 2014

@ jvs11560,

Before the plant upgrade in August, Tesla only used about 30% of the available space. Even if the August update doubled their footprint, which I don't know, that's still around half of what GM and Toyota had occupied. Tesla is also starting from scratch, having completely redesigned most of the interior. It's not like Tesla bought a working production line which they simply had to tweak to get it to build a different type of car. Tesla literally started from scratch with this place. Per the factory tour, all of the robots were purchased brand new by Tesla and reflect the most state of the art technology. Each robot is multi-talented and can change tools on-the-fly. That means one robot can handle different tasks, from welding to riveting to parts placement.

Weren't all Roadsters basically hand built? Tesla had no practical experience with mass production prior to acquiring the Numi plant, so it had to basically reinvent the wheel. Tesla's recent August upgrade allows them to produce 1,500 cars per week, or double the previous capacity.

AmpedRealtor | December 10, 2014

In other words, I think Tesla is still learning how to make cars.

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