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VIN submission

VIN submission

The old forum by Craig was shutdown, but I for one would like to see it continue. If Tesla buyers care to self report their VINs going forward feel free to do it in this forum. Happy to take the reins where Craig left off. Thank you

leipang0 | December 11, 2013

last one reported was 28680 assigned on 12/2, to give you a head start.

Brian H | December 12, 2013

So, where's your graph based on one VIN? >;)

aesilberman | December 12, 2013

appreciate it! any links to other extant forums also appreciated so i cant hunt these down myself

aesilberman | December 12, 2013

http://www.flickr.com/photos/111352179@N03/11344220883/

Updated graph as of 12/10/2013 thanks to 2 new data pts. My curiosity in continuing this scheme stems from the fact that current VIN assignments at a rate of ~450/wk are trending so far below wall street estimates for 2014 of ~700/wk. It seems that many of you have dismissed that reliability of this information following recent quarterly results, but I believe its too early to tell. Its true that many issues (Timing of deliveries, the number of loaner vehicles, batching of VINs) obfuscate the usefulness of this data in pegging an exact number for deliveries, but i believe the data could still serve as a measure for the upper bound of what deliveries might be. Or at least am willing to find out. Questions/comments welcome

Brian H | December 12, 2013

julius went to the old thread,

jjulius@san.rr.com | December 11, 2013
26999 delivered 12/7/2013. MS 85+

JZ13 | December 12, 2013

Elon announced today they are building 600/week which is the max battery supply from Panasonic.

leipang0 | December 12, 2013

what is the highest VIN assigned?

aesilberman | December 12, 2013

Highest vin: 29298, assigned dec 10

aesilberman | December 13, 2013

Bump

Pianist | December 15, 2013

26231

December 7

aesilberman | December 15, 2013

Thanx

mantin | December 15, 2013

26188 assigned in late Oct; car delivery on 12/3. Super car, great appreciation for the help of Tesla and these forums.Thanks.

DallasTXModelS | December 15, 2013

took Delivery today 15DEC2013 on VIN26327

Xenoilphobe | December 15, 2013

picking up tomorrow in Rockville VIN17540 (P85 with all options checked) White with Beige leather interior.

aesilberman | December 17, 2013

Any vin assignments?

SCOTTIELV | December 17, 2013

Got my MS vin number assigned today Dec 17: 29459

xanqan | December 17, 2013

29687 here

aesilberman | December 18, 2013

Great, thanks

aesilberman | December 18, 2013

http://www.flickr.com/photos/111352179@N03/11436583833/

graph as of 12/18/2013. working with what we have. please submit if you've recently received a VIN. The decline in VIN assignment rate continues. 364 vins/wk using last 2wks data.

Captain_Zap | December 18, 2013

I don't see how you are getting those numbers and you have very little data. I looked at your chart and it was jumbled up at flicker.

With over 1000 vin assignments between 12/2 and 12/17 just on this thread and the odds of the VINS being listed here being the very last ones issued on that day are slim. Your number definitely represents an incorrect level of confidence, at a minimum.

Future numbers will not be representative for some time too. VIN numbers do not represent sales trends. It represents a car getting built on the production line. The factory shuts down for a week each quarter and that week is quickly approaching so that can impact VIN assignment greatly. The cars are built in batches based on configurations and destinations. That impacts VIN assignment rates.

CalDreamin | December 18, 2013

aesilberman is apparently interested in VIN data to support his bear case for Tesla's stock price. He's demonstrated that he will take a handful of VIN data points and find 3 significant figures of gloom and doom for Tesla in the results. This is nonsense.

aesilberman | December 18, 2013

Thank you for your opinions Captain_Zap and CalDreamin

Captain_Zap: I agree there is very little new data. Ill check flicker, and thank you for the heads up. This graph is a scatter plot of rolling weekly rate of VIN assigments using data from previous 2wks. I'm familiar with the drawbacks of this method and I agree with some of your points. Accuracy depends on the number of VINs reported et al, and as such I hope ppl are encouraged to report. You can simply choose not to waste your time if you think this is an exercise in futility. I do not think that looking at VIN assignments will let you forecast to the 100th car, but it certainly helps in ballparking over a quarter and year.

CalDreamin: I'm actually just looking for the truth. If a layperson were to look at the data qtd, it would appear that estimates are way off. Would like more data to prove or disprove that.

Captain_Zap | December 18, 2013

@ aesilberman

What are your qualifications when it comes to data qualifying and data analysis?

Out4aDuck | December 18, 2013

Given the sparseness of data, it probably makes more sense to look at the data over a longer period of time. Maybe 2 months rather than 2 weeks. If I take all of the VIN's reported in the last 2 months, plot them, and have Excel draw a straight line through them, the slope is 410 per week. I believe this is an accurate representation of the VIN assignment rate.

Combined with the thousands of EU VIN's that were preassigned, this would be consistent with a build rate of 600/week.

aesilberman | December 18, 2013

Out4aDuck:

Feel free to post your work. Encourage everyone to draw their own conclusions and add to discussion. I dont know the right answer, I just hope ppl keep posting to add to robustness of dataset. I use a relatively short 2 wks bc the company is supposed to be ramping their production over time and I want to see that when it happens. Its not the only method I use.

Captain_Zap:

Thank you for the follow up. Economics and Stat major from Duke and post graduate work at Columbia. Feel free to email me directly with further follow up.

SMinnihan | December 18, 2013

Does one need more than 10th grade algebra to compile a plotted line of rolling averages?

Out4aDuck | December 18, 2013

SMinnihan, I'm not sure what your point is, but yes you can calculate averages with 10th grade algebra. But I would argue that a 10th grader will not know if this is the most appropriate way to analyze sporadic data of this type. Craig was good enough to elaborate on some of the challenges in his earlier postings.

What we see for sure is that VIN assignment dropped dramatically from 700/wk to 400/wk around October 10. In my opinion, this has zero correlation with factory build rates. It merely reflects a change in methodology about how they assign (pre-assign) VIN numbers.

riceuguy | December 18, 2013

Per Out4aDuck's point, the numbers won't line up to production numbers due to the European build out and batch VIN assignments. I think investing based on this type of unreliable data is emblematic of the problem with today's impatient investors...both institutional and individual. If you believe in the long term viability of the at, the business, and the business model, then buy and hold or buy and sell when a logical peak is reached, or hedge...but don't just short because you think you can detect a barely perceptible drop in the build pace based on a handful of data points.

Captain_Zap | December 18, 2013

I used to compile and analyze scientific data. I would then present and defend the data and conclusions in court. Misinterpretation of data is a pet peeve. I wouldn't take this data to court or to the bank for a multitude of reasons.

The conclusion that was drawn is even more questionable that the data. No margin of error is mentioned and the significant figures implied certainly disqualifies the conclusion.

SMinnihan | December 18, 2013

Tesla should just release monthly deliveries like every other car company

cfOH | December 18, 2013

"Encourage everyone to draw their own conclusions and add to discussion."

I've already said my piece: After wrangling 300+ VINs over 6 months, for all the reasons I've already given, I'm convinced that plots of VINs are useless at best and misleading at worst. And even worse (if that's possible), they give credibility to misinterpretations through the fallacy of numbers: If there's a number, people believe it more than if there isn't.

Captain_Zap | December 18, 2013

Yep. I'm starting to think that this is inappropriate for any of us to be taking on at this point.

Things are changing so fast with ramping up and new distribution routes that even monthly estimates would be very misleading to someone that doesn't understand how Tesla works. Tesla routinely releases production numbers as they see appropriate. I'm happy just knowing that their sales this year exceeded Tesla's goals and expectations substantially.

pilotSteve | December 18, 2013

@Sminnihann "Tesla should just release monthly deliveries like every other car company"......

Tesla is NOT (and I hope never will be) like every other car company! Enough said.

Mr. Hansen | December 18, 2013

VIN 29767
19 Desember :o)

Captain_Zap | December 18, 2013

+1 pilotSteve

Captain_Zap | December 18, 2013

Congrats, Mr. Hansen!

SMinnihan | December 18, 2013

God forbid transparency to shareholders...enough said

Brian H | December 18, 2013

Koz | December 19, 2013

Need to know VIN assignment + non-VIN assigned reservations totals to draw much of picture of sales. Would be useful to have reservation date along with VIN and VIN assignment date. Doesn't gave reservation total but gives a better "feel" for what is going on.

aesilberman | December 19, 2013

Out4aduck and riceuguy:

Do you believe that the apparent drop in vin rate is due to 1) a change in vin assignment methodology. Ie assigning euro vins closer to delivery or 2) A change in order mix that is seeing more domestic cars than European. If first scenario, then 1) when do we see vin rate perk back up to 600/wk? Anecdotally, I've read that the bolus of these pre assigned vehicles are slated for delivery throughout q1. And 2) have you tracked expected delivery date on euro orders pre and post oct 10, I imagine you would see the days between vin assignment and delivery contract

Out4aDuck | December 19, 2013

Here’s what I see in the VIN data. First, I’m going to assume that all VIN’s are assigned sequentially. But they are obviously not built or delivered sequentially. In my opinion, they pre-assigned VIN’s to all EU customers with confirmed orders up until Oct 10. Why do that? Any time you have megabucks in the delivery pipeline, a small glitch in delivery logistics can be catastrophic. And since the logistics were still being worked out, it made sense to have as much forward visibility as possible.

How many VIN’s were pre-assigned? Here’s a rough estimate. VIN numbers up to about 28200 will be delivered in NA by the end of the year. Assuming 6500 in Q4, the total number (2012 + 2013) of Model S’s delivered will be 24700. So about 3500 pre-assigned EU cars. Some of these are in the delivery pipeline; some are yet to be built in 2014.

Eventually as these pre-assigned VIN’s are built out, the VIN assignment rate will better represent the build rate. Until then, the weekly VIN assignment rate only tells you the rate of VIN assignment. It does not tell you the weekly order rate. It does not tell you the weekly build rate.

Out4aDuck | December 19, 2013

Another data point. For NA VIN's assigned in the last two months, the average delivery time from assignment to delivery is 42 days. There were 53 data points used for this average, so you can decide how much to trust it.

bonaire | December 19, 2013

Vins or no vins. The one number that people have to come up with is what they should value the company per car that they sell.

Craig did a good job trying to expose the truth that Tesla should put out on their own. But I don't think wall street will let them do that.

Out4aDuck | December 24, 2013

For those keeping score at home, the VIN assignment rate for the last 8 weeks is at 380/wk. Data has been sparse, but it has also been remarkably consistent.

aesilberman | December 24, 2013

Out4aDuck:

For pre-assigned vins (pre-oct 10), what is the avg time from VIN assignment to delivery. In contrast, What would you expect that time would be for euro vehicles post Oct 10. your conclusion on vin assignments implies that these should be very different.

for those 53 data pts of NA vehicles, do you have the time between order and vin assigment, or order to delivery. I would be curious if that time was increasing or decreasing to assess whether backlog is increasing or decreasing, and whether order rate is greater than/less than build rate. If we assume build rate is 600/wk, we can back into order rate

Out4aDuck | December 24, 2013

For EU deliveries, I'm seeing a wide range of about 80-120 days from VIN assignment to delivery. The Oct 10 inflection point was very close to VIN 26000. The most recent EU delivery that I saw was VIN 24903 on Dec 19. But the EU cars are being delivered so far out of order that I can't draw any conclusion from a few data points.

I have not kept track of "order" dates but when people have stated "confirm or finalize" dates, I have included that in my spreadsheet. To my mind, that's the date that the Tesla clock starts. Since October, the confirm-to-VIN time has been running anywhere from zero to 5 weeks. But only 25% of people have included a confirm date and there is so much spread that once again I hesitate to draw any conclusions. In fact, the spread is so large that I suspect some posters have reported their order data as their confirmation date.

It's a shame that the EU google spreadsheet fell into such disrepair. It contained about 10% of all EU orders, but has been pretty much abandoned. If it was still being updated, we would have your answer.

Roamer@AZ USA | December 24, 2013

What happens to the VIN numbers Jan first. At some point do they change the year code and start a new number sequence.

Out4aDuck | December 24, 2013

People with January deliveries are reporting that their VIN's are being updated to a new year code, but the sequence number remains unchanged. Same thing as last year.

skymaster | December 29, 2013

Any Vin#'s (delivered) for the last two days of the year??? BUMP

Salute | December 30, 2013

VIN # 27695
S85
Order Confirmed 11/7/13
Delivered 12/28/13

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