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Q4 6,900 Model S delivered. Up 20%! Update 2!

Q4 6,900 Model S delivered. Up 20%! Update 2!

"The company is speaking at the Detroit Auto Show and telegraphing that deliveries were above estimates. It is also discussing growth plans for 2014.

Tesla’s deliveries were roughly 6,900 in the fourth quarter. This is roughly 20% more than the company’s guidance.Tesla also plans to double its sales and service locations in 2014. We have not yet heard about any 2014 guidance from the company."

"Tesla’s adjusted earnings report for 2013 is expected to be $0.58 per share, according to Thomson Reuters. The consensus revenue estimate is $2.35 billion. For 2014, those estimates are expected to rise to $1.50 per share on revenue of $3.17 billion."

Detroit Auto Show: News of Strong Tesla Deliveries in Driving Seat

Some of the points of interest discussed by Tesla execs at the show:

- 6,900 Tesla Model S sales in Q4, which is 20% above guidance
- Model S sales confirmed over 25,000 units globally
- Model S is exceptional in cold weather, which has led to higher than expected sales this winter.
- Tesla’s over-the-air updates improve safety, performance, etc.
- Growth…growth…growth coming in 2014.  Reckless growth.
- Tesla needs more employees urgently as it grows. 
- 80 Superchargers in operation today
- Model X being worked on feverishly right now.  Expected to debut in production form in California in the near future.
- Battery swapping options still being explored
- Superchargers coming to select areas of Canada soon
- Gen III will have “practical range,” won’t be restricted by range
- High hopes for sales in China

Tesla Motors has accomplished the impossible: a startup automaker gaining recognition and admiration from one of the Big Three.

As the Detroit Free Press put it: “The emergence of Tesla Motors as America’s fourth domestic automaker — a feat once viewed by the Detroit Three as practically implausible — poses a threat to the industry’s entrenched mind-set.”

With the addition of Tesla to the ranks of admired US automaker, we now have the Big Four.

The Detroit Free Press spoke with General Motors’ senior vice president of global product development, Mark Reuss, who remarked:

“I really, really believe that the world and the industry and America needs an Elon Musk.  I think it’s really, really healthy. I really admire the man for everything he’s accomplished with Tesla. He’s basically built a brand, which is very hard to do in a very mature industry. So that’s huge.”

Big Three Could Become Big Four as Tesla Motors Gains Recognition From General Motors

Elon Musk: "Some confusion in media reports today. No Tesla vehicles are being physically recalled by Tesla."

Elon Musk: ‘The Word ‘Recall’ Needs to Be Recalled’

RW Baird upgraded its rating on Tesla shares to Outperform from Neutral with a $187 price target on expectations the company's production is stronger than anticipated. Baird thinks Tesla's 2014 Model S delivery guidance could top expectations and believes the car maker is several years ahead of competitors in battery technology.

Tesla upgraded to Outperform with $187 price target at RW Baird

Elon Musk CNBC Interview (video)

Tesla to See `Reckless (Relentless) Growth' in 2014: Guillen (video)

With news that Tesla Motors sold 6,900 Model S sedans globally in Q4 of 2013, we can now piece together the 2013 sales puzzle.

Tesla’s Q3 financials confirmed 15,500 sales.  Now, with this Q4 statement of 6,900 added in, we can say that Model S sales in 2013 were approximately 22,400.

That’s a global sales figures, though the majority of those 22,400 sales were in the US.

The 6,900 units sold in Q4 were roughly 20% over what Tesla had expected.  Similarly, Tesla sold approximately 25% more Model S sedans in Q4 than it did in Q3.

Tesla Model S Sales Exceeded 22,000 Units Globally in 2013

Cindy I II III | January 14, 2014

wow

JonathanL | January 14, 2014

That does not bode well for the Loaner program.

eddiemoy | January 14, 2014

"demand is going down because registrations are down in california"

i would like someone to eat their words!

Mathew98 | January 14, 2014

Most SC's sold out all their loaners right before New Year. TM needs to replenish the loaner / demo fleet so new buyers can snap them up faster than we can use them as loaners...

suresv | January 14, 2014

I agree about the loaner program. I think they pretty much sold all the loaners. I think they gave in to the demand in the US by selling the loaners and keeping the Europe growth going.

So much for demand in the US tapering as some have been speculating!!

Mathew98 | January 14, 2014

http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/14/autos/tesla-model-s-sales/index.html?sou...

This is a response from Jerome Guillen, Tesla's vice president of sales and service.

"What's in store for 2014? It's growth, growth and growth," he said. "On the sales and service side, it's reckless growth."

"Reckless growth" for 2014!!! How's that for a sound bite?

jbunn | January 14, 2014

I thought I smelled burning shorts this morning...

Amazing! And exactly in accordance with "The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan"

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-bet...

eddiemoy | January 14, 2014

@tes-s, so how's them apples?!?! so demand is down for the model s?

Mathew98 | January 14, 2014

Ahem, shifting deliveries to international markets is not the same as lower demands in the US.

carlk | January 14, 2014

"I thought I smelled burning shorts this morning..."

The tsunami of hurt is coming but Elon forgot to warn the shorts ahead this time.

ccbldg | January 14, 2014

I think possibly the 1000 or so vehicles that were unaccounted for with VINs last qtr, were possibly en-route via ship and not counted as delivered in Q3... but were delivered in Q4. That pipeline is filled now and shouldn't affect future deliveries.

2013 will end great for Tesla & is well deserved. With the growth expected in 2014, the Model X, future announcement on Model E, supercharger build-out, etc. 2014 should be another great year for Tesla Motors!

eddiemoy | January 14, 2014

time to put in order for model x, wish they come out with a bigger battery though... the current 85kw is just enough for 99% of the time, but would like a little more cushion.

Haeze | January 14, 2014

While I am happy about the news, does this thread not belong in the Tesla "General" forum ?

Benz | January 14, 2014

Wow, that's great news: "almost 6,900 Model S deliveries in Q4 of 2013". I wasn't expecting to hear this today. But hey, good news is always welcome. By the way, that makes the total for 2013: 4,950 + 5,150 + 5,500 + 6,900 = 22,500 !!!!

I just received this by email:
-----------------
Tesla Revenue Expected to Exceed Guidance by 20% in Fourth Quarter

Sales Driven by Superlative Safety Record and Excellent Cold Weather Performance

PALO ALTO, CA -- (Marketwired) -- 01/14/14 -- Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) sales in the fourth quarter of 2013 were the highest in company history by a significant margin. With almost 6,900 vehicles sold and delivered, Tesla exceeded prior guidance by approximately 20%. A higher than expected number of cars was manufactured as a result of an excellent effort by the Tesla production team and key suppliers, particularly Panasonic.
-----------------

The last sentence is very important. It's very likely that Panasonic has started to deliver the 18650 battery cells in higher quantities then they did before. And 2014 has just started. We have a great year ahead of us.

ccbldg | January 14, 2014

> Gen III will have “practical range,” won’t be restricted by range

Hrmmm... wonder what TM has up their sleeves with this statement?

Rheumboy | January 14, 2014

It's soooo great to be part of a revolution!

Che G.

bradslee | January 14, 2014

Elon's strategy of "promise low but deliver high" works again. Good job, Elon and Tesla! TSLA longs grin and shorts eat the s**ts!

carlk | January 14, 2014

Yes Elon is almost as good as Jobs in this regard. Give a good but not too great prediction and beat it handily every quarter.

PapaSmurf | January 14, 2014

--Gen III will have “practical range,” won’t be restricted by range

Sounds like they will design Gen III to be able to reach the typical Supercharger interval, perhaps with an extra 50 miles of range to spare for hills or cold weather.

AmpedRealtor | January 14, 2014

Poor lorenfb, SMinnihan, Tes-s, and all of the other trolls...

nomoDinos @ca.us | January 14, 2014

Wow! That's just awesome. If things work out well in China, and battery production ramps up as Elon said it will, we're in for a wild ride :) Short term fluctuations don't really matter to me since I'm in long like BradSLee, but it sure is nice to make some of that digital money back!

Tiebreaker | January 14, 2014

TSLA
161.25
+21.91 (15.72%)

ccbldg | January 14, 2014

Update 2

Tiebreaker | January 14, 2014

@AmpedR, me thinks tes-s is not a troll, just misunderstood some verbiage and overestimated his/hers calculations. The others... :-P

mclary | January 14, 2014

Actually it was 6,900.

Please adjust your title.

jk2014 | January 14, 2014

Model E practical range will be 265 or more. Giga factory scale, as well as chemistry and 18650 form factor modifications in addition to power electronics efficiencies (among other modifications) will make this possible by 2017 IMO...

ccbldg | January 14, 2014

mclary, Actually 6,900 is almost 7,000 but title changed nonetheless. (Actually title changed because I couldn't stand another flag from you, or Captain_Zap or Dane) GO T!

ccbldg | January 14, 2014

Mathew98, reckless was meant to be relentless as cleared up by Jerome later.

Brian H | January 14, 2014

Yes, it's better not to relent than not to reck(on).
>:)

Brian H | January 14, 2014

ccb;
The pipeline may be filled, but may need to fatten. Also there is an Asia pipeline to build and fill. One fortunate aspect of Calif. siting is access to the Pacific without crossing the continent and/or needing to transit Panama.

So I expect more "goods in transit" to add to the discrepancy between production an sales, for some time. Note that widened or expanded pipelines will result from the MX intro, too. Then again for GenIII.

ccbldg | January 15, 2014

Brian, agreed on Asia.

Model X will begin shipping in Q4 2014, with main production in 2015, Gen III (Model E) in 2017(?), so will have no real influence this year.

Hopefully the real constraint for shipment to EU & US deliveries was battery supply, which TM seems to be working out. Should be interesting after battery giga-factory is online.

tes-s | January 15, 2014

Thank goodness for international sales!

They do not want to report the drop in US sales - this is a company press release, no reason to put in a downer.

They are taking actions to stem the slowdown in US deliveries, specifically they have begun to aggressively build out the supercharger network. This will add a new set of buyers, and stem the downturn in US sales.

tes-s | January 15, 2014

Tesla will continue to sell as many MS as they can make, at least through 2014. My view is they will sell fewer cars in the US in 2014 than in 2013, with the drop partially mitigated by the recent surge in supercharger installs. Just one person's opinion.

Gen3Joe | January 15, 2014

"Gen III will have practical range"

I don't like the sound of that. After hearing them say that Gen III will have over 200 miles of range, this statement sounds like a hedge to me. Hopefully it's part of the under promise and over deliver strategy.

tes-s | January 15, 2014

I liked what he said about "recall". The press made it sound like Tesla was physically recalling vehicles, when they are actually doing an over-the-air software update and mailing a part that costs a few dollars to each owner.

ccbldg | January 15, 2014

Gen3Joe, no worries, Jerome cleared that up later.
----------------------------------------------
A Tesla insider at the Detroit Auto Show told IBTimes in an informal, off-the-record conversation: "It's hard to imagine that the Gen 3 wouldn't get 200 miles in range." He added that there might be a upgrade option similar to the Model S's 60 kWh battery (208 miles) and 85 kWh battery (265 miles) choices. Also, when asked if it's better to refer to the lower-cost Tesla electic car expected out in 2017 as the "Gen 3" or the "Model E" (a name Tesla trademarked last year) he said it's better to call it the "Gen 3" for now, implying that Tesla has not publicly confirmed the name of the vehicle.

Jerome Guillen, Telsa Motors Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) head of global sales, wouldn’t say Tuesday what the range of the company’s planned lower-cost electric vehicle, dubbed the “Gen 3,” would be, but his answer indicated that it’s not likely to meet the same range expectation seen in the luxury Model S sedan.

“It will have a practical range,” he demurred, when asked by International Business Times during a question-and-answer session at the 2014 Detroit Auto Show, saying customers would be satisfied with what the company has planned for a $40,000 electric car, due out in 2017.

Detroit Auto Show 2014: $40,000 ‘Model E’ From Tesla Motors (TSLA) Will Have A ‘Practical’ Range, Says Company’s Head Of Global Sales

carlk | January 15, 2014

It seems there will be GenIII models at different price levels with above and below 200 miles range. A 200 mile $40000 EV may not be doable in three years. On the other hand even 160 miles or so would double everything on the market at that price in the foreseeable future.

Webcrawler | January 15, 2014

Tes-s,

You keep saying US demand is dropping but NOTHING to date supports your opinion....

AmpedRealtor | January 15, 2014

NHTSA's own wordings don't help the situation:

"Tesla Motors, Inc. (Tesla) is recalling certain model year 2013 Model S vehicles equipped for, and delivered with, certain NEMA 14-50 (240 volt) Universal Mobile Connector (UMC) adapters. During charging, the adapter, cord, or wall outlet could overheat."

To be fair to the media, NHTSA itself is saying that it's a vehicle recall. It's a little scary that NHTSA can't tell the difference between a vehicle and a small plastic adapter...

Andrew_OH_S60andS70D | January 15, 2014

I had heard that 25% of people that test drive a Model S put in a reservation. Is that true? If so, it makes all the sense in the world to open up galleries all over the place to get people into the cars.

I also think Tesla's approach to service and customer support is right on target. You should see the looks of disbelief when I tell people that there was a new set of floor mats in my car after the service checkout, just because Tesla thought the original floor mats were not good enough. Can you imagine any other car company, or dealership, doing that?

jkn | January 16, 2014

tes-s,

insideevs.com/final-2013-plug-in-sales-rankings-for-the-us-are-in-who-did-well-who-did-not-infographic/

SEP & OCT numbers are low. Tesla started to ship to Europe. After that increasing production has increased USA sales. In spring Tesla was delivering cars ordered during past years. I see no evidence of decline.

In the Netherlands December 578 Tesla Model S were sold, in Norway 553, in USA 1500. Sum is 2631. Very high number. We must wait before making any conclusions.

tes-s | January 16, 2014

Evidence of declining sales in US:
- declining sales in california (the most mature US market).
- no mention of US sales by Tesla - if they were up, would have touted that
- re-engaging on superchargers due to slumping sales. Were way behind their initial plan, so re-invigorated program to increase demand. Sales people are now touting superchargers to prospects.
- international deliveries started, with same 4-6 week delivery in US on P models, and 6-8 weeks on others.

Just my opinion, and the silence from Tesla is deafening. Makes no difference to Tesla sales - they are selling every car they can make, and ramping up production as fast as their suppliers can deliver batteries and other parts.

JenAlJill13 | January 16, 2014

tes-s, the splurge in SC construction has little to do with "slumping sales". It certainly will be a great talking point for the rest of the year to say you can go from San Diego to Vancouver, Boston to Miami, and New York to Los Angeles on SC. Why shouldn't Tesla tout such a unique network of chargers to allay peoples' remaining concerns with Range Anxiety? Clearly there's a finite market for $100,000 luxury cars. The Model S is not the end for Tesla, just a stepping stone to the Gen III...

Benz | January 16, 2014

@tes-s

Sales figures of the Tesla Model S in California in 2014 (more than 10,000) will definitely be higher than in 2013 (less than 10,000). You just wait and see what happens in 2014.

tes-s | January 16, 2014

@Benz - Quarterly declines in CA deliveries Q1 through Q3 2013. I think that will be typical as markets mature. I'd be very surprised in Tesla sells 10,000 MS in CA in 2014.

@Jen - superchargers were widely publicized by Tesla, and they published maps and completion timeframes. This was a great way to get people to buy cars, with the expectation they would be able to travel distances soon when the superchargers were built. The problem was Tesla dropped the ball - they were simply not building them. Elon's Christmas trip cross country was delayded. I believe this caused a lack of confidence that they would build them, and removed buyers from the market. That was a wakeup call to Tesla - reminded them of what they already knew. They saw slumping demand, so got refocused on the superchargers to sell more cars - and have their sales people actively promoting the superchargers to close sales.

The supercharger network in CA is the most robust - and even with that, sales in CA are declining.

JZ13 | January 16, 2014

tes-s is a troll. It is absurd to think sales in CA/U.S. are declining. Tesla has stated for over a year that they sell more cars in markets where they already have a presence. I'm guessing you are a short. Having a fun week?

tes-s | January 16, 2014

Someone else posted the decline in CA sales for each quarter (Q1 through Q3) in 2013.

I'm having an awesome week!! Thanks for asking.

Mathew98 | January 16, 2014

@JZ13 -

@tes-s is not a troll. He is just a very opinionated owner with very stubborn views. He is in the "show me" camp before his opinions are reversed.

We are all pretty much speculating with the same set of facts and data sets. @tes-s just happen to see the inverse of what most of the owners see.

Think of him as a contrarian, not a troll.

AmpedRealtor | January 16, 2014

I don't think it's particularly shocking to anyone here that there is a limit to how many $70,000+ EVs Tesla can sell in a given market. First, Tesla is selling to a very small market segment in that price range. Then they are selling to a further subset of that small market that would be interested in (or not dissuaded by) an electric car.

Evidence of this simple reality can be found in Tesla's aggressive plans to sell into new markets - Norway, Germany, China, etc. You don't do that if you have a deep market in your home country. Given the price point of the car (and its EV newness), Tesla's market penetration will be shallow at best. In order to maximize a shallow market, you must widen your reach. That's exactly what Tesla is doing and why they have expanded into other countries.

If there were blockbuster demand here at home, there would be no need for Tesla to expand into other markets. I don't believe Tesla's sales figures have any bearing on the supercharger rollout, as those efforts are finally bearing fruit. It takes time. The increased rate of supercharger rollout that we are seeing today took a year to bear fruit. It has nothing to do with any sales figure speculations, and Tesla is not doing much to promote superchargers if anyone thinks they are using that as a marketing draw. Hardly.

I think Tesla knew it had a relatively shallow market anywhere that it was going to sell its expensive cars, hence the aggressive and rapid expansion plan to enter new markets.

SamO | January 16, 2014

Maybe "someone" could post the "facts" for Tesla's declining sales in CA. Have not seen any of this "proof".

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