How many Model S cars have rolled off the assembly line? Is there a running total somewhere?
My guesstimate is about 22, based on the known deliveries and the "1 car per day" statement.
Musk, Jurvetson 2
Founders' event 8
Fremont Tour 8
What's your "WAG"?
~60 vehicles for crash testing (I presume they did not simply repaint them for the founders series, or the test drive event...).
LOL! Yes, I was thinking of cars released for sale and use, of course. All the crashers were/are traditionally bright orange, all through the frame and exterior, aren't they?
I wonder when they'll crank it up enough to start supplying the stores' in-house test drive cars, too. They'll be in addition to customer deliveries, but probably slightly lower priority. The 1-a-day pace will have to pick up considerably in July, I suspect.
Did anyone look at any of the VINs on the Tour event? LA Tour drivers -- have a look!
This weekend we will drive an “S” at the Los Angeles Driving Event. My question and concern is. Will we be driving Betas or final production “S’s?
Were the Fremont test drives (reservation holders and Press) Betas or Production?
petero: George B said they were 99% production. They are the cars that were made just ahead of the cars that were delivered on 22-June.
Slindell. So the answer is Betas!
Two more questions. What is the VIN # for Steven J's first production "S?" Same for #2-8?
No! Not betas! I was told the car I was in was 100% Production and not 99%
I think Slindell came up with 99% because if they need to move the mirror down 1/4" or add one more stitch to the performance leather seat they will. Not 100% which means they are going to change nothing no matter what the test drive people say.
These cars are production but very minor changes may occur.
Agreed. By telling me 100% the intension was that assure from very mInor tweeks that what you test drive is what you will be driving soon and is established quality finishing and is indicative of final build quality and handling.
The cars were production models. Anything that they're doing now can be charactarized as a "refinement" as opposed to a "change."
Although there was still no manual sun-shade so they'll need to put that in.
@petero Jurvetson's VIN is ____F0000001 or something like that. There was a pic posted somewhere.
I may have to disagree with you. Betas are not final production vehicles. I call them “PRE-PRODUCTION,” vehicles. To me production cars are built and qualify for retail sale with out an asterisks .
It is like being pregnant, not a little pregnant. Either you are …or you aren’t!
To me, it is an alpha, beta, or a production vehicle. Sorry none of this 98-99% b.s.
I would not call these betas. At worste, they are production samples! :) I see them eventually deployed to TM stores for test drives and example of final build quality.
@petero, BYT: Release Candidates? Model S RC1-8 in a Tour. If there is nothing to change, RC becomes a Production as it is.
I always thought Release Candidates refered to software but otherwise, sure, these are like RC's
@BYT - I always thought Release Candidates referred to software...
What do you think the Model S is? It's just a great tablet computer with awesome battery life and an amazing carrying case!
Tesla is selling cars pretty much like software is sold, so software terminology works quite well. They even have versioning like software for different car versions (Roadster 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5)
Brian H - what is "WAG"? My res seq # is 6,759 P (not S)
Electric blue, I believe WAG stands for wild ass guess. Brian H is clever fellow:)
I'm not sure the regular rules can be applied anymore. These are production vehicles, but we already know that there will be an opportunity to add some additional console options in the future. Not factory per se, but not aftermarket either. Manufacturer installed--after the fact. Additionally, firmware updates will play a huge role. New regen options? Firmware. Apps SDK and skinning? Firmware. Teenager mode limiting the car to 65 mph? Firmware.
Like an iPhone, getting new functionality is possible via software. Unlike an iPhone but in conjunction with the Ranger program and the modular nature of the car, some hardware updates may be feasible as well (within limits).
petero, you can draw the line wherever you want. At one car a day (and slowly ramping up), all of these cars including the test drive vehicles, the founders series, and all Signature cars, are kind of "99%". Saying and meaning 100% would be silly at this point: When problems are identified, they should be solved for the vehicles that come down the line later. That's the whole point of the "slow ramp-up" thing.
I agree that starting with (and including) the test drive cars, all cars should be "feature complete". Tesla's product specification should indeed be checked off 100% (not including some extras like optional center console pieces). The fact that a shade for the panoramic roof seems to be part of this specification and has not yet made its appearance is a little irritating.
My gut feeling is that they will go without the shade in the end. They just needed to advertise the shade in order to stop the skin cancer and glare debates. Now that everybody sees what "blocks 98% of visible light and 81% of heat" really means, customers may find that actually they do not need/want a shade.
Now that the Model S is out there, the reviews are great. This is now the most important Forum because it shows the progress and how fast they are making the car. My number is 4309 so I am a little worried my car will even be built this year. I am hoping that we are not guessing these numbers, because folks like myself will be looking for the ramp up in production because right now "one car a day" is not cuttin it. I don't want poorly built cars, but I want my cake and.... Watching all these great reviews and customers test drive is making think I will not be able to make it to Nov 2012 to get this car. I want to see these number grow like e^x, I'm dying here.
I'm 3820 and I am figuring on a December delivery date. One car per day seems crazy to me. What are all of the people who work on the line doing for the other 7 1/2 hours of their shift after their part is done (or before it gets to them).
I am Sig 1212 and I have an October expected delivery date. I know there is at least a 1232 Sig out there as well. With this information I would not expect a P3000 to make it out the door this year yet unless things on the line drastically change between the Sigs and the Ps.
Okay, with them working 5 days a week, 4 weeks a month, from Oct to Dec and making 80 cars a day (5x4x3x80) we get 4,800 cars. So it is possible I think.
They can turn out over 1500 cars a month. Once all the bugs are work out of the system the line can go full throttle. Give them some time to get things going. November and December alone can produce over 3000 cars.
If Sig 1212 is delivered in October that means they will be making P's in October. To me everything is going to plan. There is another post somewhere discussing production rate.
I'm Sig #567 and the estimated delivery is September. So, that's 645 numbers from 1212. Assuming some of those numbers got pulled up as "specials", we could guess 600 units between Sept and Oct. That's much better than 1 per day and would be in line with ramping up to 1500 per month.
In 6 months, TM would need to produce 5000 cars (or average 833 per month). In 12 Months (next year) they plan on 20,000 which is 1666 per month (or about 80 per day). So, by January, I'd expect TM to be in full production.
When you're counting, assume Sig #1212 is produced within the first 1000 vehicles. Your spot on the list may be 1212, but if you get one of only 1000 Sigs, then more than 200 people left the Sig list.
Elon has stated that they will be at or above the 20K/yr rate by December. Which probably means November, too. That's 3300 off the 5,300 2012 guesstimate floating about, meaning 2,000 by end of Oct. 2,200 less the 1,200 Sigs means 1,000 Ps by the end of Oct. So judge your P# chances by that.
In line with Elon's promise/prediction that the US Sigs would be delivered "this summer", I expect those 1000 cars to be built before September 21. If the certification for canadian delivery is done on time, then the canadian Sigs would be next.
From this pic:http://www.motortrend.com/features/consumer/1206_temple_of_tesla_touring...
I see 3 cars on the line that are close enough to roll off on the same day. I am guessing they are at 3 cars a day at least right now.
I wonder how much human fine tuning is goes into each car now? How much of this fine tuning can be automated? If much of the fine tuning can NOT be automated, then the founders and possibly some of the regular sigs are going to get the hidden benefit of more finely tuned model S's. On the other hand, they will probably have to work more of the bugs out too. Just speculating while waiting for the next batch of test drive reports.
I suspect the first cars were held up in part by Elon's decision to personally walk the first cars down the line to better exercise his punctilious perfectionism on them. He wants no embarrassments, especially right off the bat!
Attended the L.A. test drive event yesterday. WHAT A RUSH!! I'm production #229 (Sig-Perf) and was told by my "Co-pilot" that I could expect delivery by late August-early September. I was somewhat disappointed, having hoped for delivery within the next couple of weeks, but after waiting for 2 years already and having driven this magnificent piece of work, I must say it's definitely worth the wait. Hope this helps some of you estimate your delivery timeframe.....
I was looking for information on the Supercharger Network and I stumbled across this site:http://elonmusktesla.wordpress.com/2012/07/01/tesla-model-s-waiting-list...
It talks about producing 80 cars a day by the end of the year. Hopefully, that will help. That's 400 cars a week! That day will come!
Holy smOkes! This dude just launched a rocket, docked w the ISS returned it to us.... W/ garbage! And ur worried he can't get a production sched together?!
I thinkin I'm gettin 6927 for Xmas!
Just got the word....."The Tesla Factory is building your Model S Signature Performance!"
Tesla229 What is your MVPA date? I assume it is either July or August.
#229 is my production number. (P229)
Good luck Tesla229. Awesome news!
P? Not S? Does this mean that all Signature owners already have their cars? That can't be. Apparently production performance goes ahead of some signature list cars, if they are already building your car. Or that "ramping up" has been a lot faster than previously thought.
I think Tesla229 miss typed. In the original post he stated Sig Perf.
I believe the factory can (and does) take 30-90 days to "build your car"....
Mine too - says "factory is building your signature performance Model S.". Momentarily excited, but you're right, likely a 1-3 month wait still. I am reg Sig (not SSL) #371.
They probably started building the motors and various parts. My guess is their statement "..is building YOUR..." only means they're not going to bother to change the message until they deliver the car.
I think they have been making motors, batteries, doors, hoods, roofs, etc for a while now. Most parts are probably stocked on the line ready to snap in. It probably takes less than a week to assemble the car if the parts are ready in a normal process. Since these are Sigs they will probably have more human time so it might be up to a month.
We may be getting into the over deliver part..... at least I hope so.
If you Google car manufacturing you'll get some numbers and they are listed in hours not day. Stamping, welding, painting, stuff like that.
I don't think they have one guy make the motor then walk over to the battery section to make the battery then walk over to stamping......
The factory is now building your... Is the default status after your MVPA is signed through the new online order system. In effect, the order is ready to be sent to the factory for assembly. When that might actually happen is anybody's guess.
If it is taking 3 months to make a Model S and they are promissing delivery of 5k in 2012, then wouldn't prodution need to be 1666/month for the entire Q3? The 5000th car will need to enter production on Sept 30 correct? If I am correct, and the factory runs 7 days a week, then they need to have 55/day being made right now. If the factory runs an average of 22 days giving weekends off for a 4 week month, then they need to be making 75 per day right now.
What are your thoughts?
They're making parts or systems and stopping production at every step and triple checking each to see if they can find any imperfections or ways to make each production step more reliable.
As their confidence builds at each and every step, they will reduce and then eliminate the forced delays. When all the steps have the delays gone, they'll be at full speed for the production line.
After that, if they want to increase production, they'll have to go to more shifts (evening, night).
So they don't need to make everything 3 months in advance to feed the line.