Can Tesla deliver a reasonably priced car with a 285 mile range?
What kind of range will the Gen III car have then ?
Gen III won't be under $30k. Think more $35k base. Although, that will be without the federal tax credit (if that's still in play by then). It will go at least 200 miles.
So, yeah, I'll put my guess in at 2019.
Not to be too cut-throat, but hopefully never!
A $35,000 fully electric vehicle, is equivalent to a $10-15,000 ICE over a 10 year period (assuming about 20,000miles/year).
If people are asking for a Tesla to be cheaper than a $15,000 "regular" car, then it's not the right market to be in.
Also, it would end up leading to a loss of quality of the vehicle. Not what I want to see as a Tesla owner (vehicle and stock).
With Tesla's battery swapping capability, I would be happy if Tesla would come out with a 160-mile range for $39,000 in 2016. This would allow many people to charge it to the 80-mile range for daily commute and still have the 50% headroom to keep the battery well preserved. Then if those owners need to make a long trip, they can go to a service center and swap for a 300-mile battery for $60-$80.
Then 8 more years down the line, as battery price comes down even further, the owners can upgrade the battery for a longer range.
Note that the discontinued 40kwh model S $59,000 price tag is not that far from $39,000, given the 3 years gap window and a 20% reduction in size. Very do-able!
Don't hold your breath on widespread battery swap stations. Just sayin' ;-)
I don't think $500,000 for a battery swap station is not worth spending. But each Tesla service center should definitely has the capability.
Double negative. Do you mean that you think that $500k for battery swap is worth spending, or the opposite?
300 miles with current 85kWh for about $400/kWh costs just $34k. Smaller car with less weight in batteries requires less so lets aim for 60kWh with 15k battery price so that rest of the car costs half of the car.
$400/kWh * 60kWh = $24k
8% drop / year, takes about five years to get to $15k
So autumn 2018.
Most likely never, I believe Tesla will attempt to stay a mid to luxury manufacturer because they are the leaders and innovators. The electric car is only the first step in many innovations which will keep the price of Tesla cars $30k+ whether battery prices go way down or not.
On the other hand battery technology may have a major price drop due low demand and poor economic activity.
This type of event would encourage other manufactures to jump on board and we may see a KIA or Hyundai maybe Toyota prius Ev that will have such range and price (under $30k) by about 2017-2020 depending on technology breakthroughs.
I know this is optimistic, but I would gladly pay $40k for a Gen III Tesla w/285 mile range. It is likely more realistic that this would be in the $45-50k range. I guess we'll all just wait and see what Tesla rolls out in the next few years.
In 8 years, e.g. in 2021. 300 miles battery - car will cost slightly cheaper than $30,000.
At that time top version of Model S with more than approx 1,000 miles battery will cost approx the same as it costs now.
Certainly by next year, 2014. You just need to buy the appropriate shares of stock to offset your purchase and Tesla needs to improve current battery by about 9 percent. If stock goes up another 100 bucks a share, you only need to buy maybe 1100 shares. So but $110,000 car, invest another $185,834 in stock and wait for Tesla to do their part on the battery side.