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Current Production Run Rate

Current Production Run Rate

Seems like there should be a correlation between increasing calls for orders and increased production rates. May guess would be they are making 50-75 cars per month right now (given data on # of crash test cars, drivable betas, and where they are on the call list.

If we can model this going forward we can predict our individual delivery dates with more confidence, especially for those who have higher general production reservation numbers into 2013-14.

Any spread sheet jockeys want to take a try at that? If not, how some about some educated guesses!!!

EdG | August 21, 2012

Yes, I was just suggesting that when it is public knowledge that deliveries are being made at a rate that makes 5000 deliveries by year end believable, the stock price might jump quickly. This would be due to TM's predicted ability to make their loan payments without diluting the stock.

Klaus | August 21, 2012

Say what you will, but if I don't get my S by September (as stated on my MVPA) I will be highly pissed. I slapped down 5 grand the day after the unvieling and ended up with P73. Then all the talk about friends and family going ahead of me didn't sit too well but I kept my mouth shut. So last year I upgraded to Sig 280. I don't want to wait anymore. Too many promises and few results. First it was 1000 by the end of 3Q then 500, what next? Oh yeah, we got a bunch of founders no one counted on, 50 demos. Maybe a few more added in ahead of me by the next thrilling announcement.

Two and a half years is a long time to be patient. I'm beginning to wear thin. I would give Tesla a call, but it appears those that have get an answer that pleases them and based on the posts vary from on rep to another. Tell them anything to make them "smile" again.

Okay, I've vented. I'll now return your forum to it's regularly scheduled format.

PS I didn't spell check so Brian, not a word.

brianman | August 21, 2012

@Volker.Berlin
In the "taking it too literal department", I don't see how Tesla can or should help Fisker vehicles from igniting or needing a recall. ;)

walla2 | August 21, 2012

Klaus, I feel your pain. The moving dates do hurt as my original p2407 was told to be July/august when I booked it in April of last year. Now my Sig is listed as October. I do like the idea of high quality as a good excuse but transparency on delays would be nice too.

Brian H | August 22, 2012

Klaus;
your facts are wonky. First, it was always known that Founders would get their cars first. The #41 isn't much of a surprise. Second, 26 of the first 100 cars are demos, not 50 (though there will be more as stores get one or two each for OWNERS and prospective customers to ride more than 7.23631 minutes each.

If you didn't believe the warnings and cautions about how approximate the early delivery dates were, then maybe you've learned something.

Klaus | August 22, 2012

Screw the facts Brian. In March of 2009, the only facts were delivery in 2011 and I'm out $5000 for 3 and a half years. My MVPA didn't come with warnings either. "On or about September" is what it says and at less than 2 weeks away from September, I had expected a call by now with a more exact date, not some vague blog. Or an explanation. Tesla knew where it stood when I signed the MVPA and either overpromised or figured after I wouldn't mind waiting another month or two. Sorry my patience has run out.

michiganmodels | August 22, 2012

@Peter7 -

The Q2 Shareholder Letter states, "We expect to deliver approximately 500 vehicles to customers in Q3 with the balance delivered in Q4."

Also, during the conference call Elon and Deepak stated:

-They delivered 10 Model S in Q2 (3:40 Mark)
-They produced 40 production Model S vehicles to date (4:00 Mark)
-We plan to deliver 500 units (9:45 Mark)
-"I think it’s probable that we’ll produce more than 500" - Elon Musk (11:30 Mark)

http://ir.teslamotors.com/events.cfm

So, it should be:
31 Founders (10 were delivered in Q2)
244 Special Signatures
225 Signatures

HaroldS | August 22, 2012

@Klaus,

Actually, if you are S280 you're out $40k, not $5k (unless you got some sweetheart deal for which the rest of us were not eligible).

You're going to get your S280 in early October (unsupported opinion). That's a couple of weeks "late", if you believe that the date on the paperwork was a date-specific promise. I'm S273 and that's the time frame I expect.

But to keep a perspective -- when I put down $40k Tesla was a name and an idea -- no factory, no production employees, certainly no final design. Now those of us in the lower Signature range are just a matter of weeks from having our cars. While every day I wait is torture, when I look at the bigger picture it's just amazing that it's happening at all.

Epley | August 22, 2012

I agree with HaroldS 100%.

We've plopped down a boatload of cash on an unproven company with no track record producing the car we are purchasing and with completely novel technology.

Perhaps we are stupid.

On the other hand, perhaps we are early adopters, helping an innovative company lead our country away from dependence on fossil fuels, leading a revolution that could quite literally change the world.

Changing the world doesn't come quick or easy.

What the people at Tesla are doing is truly revolutionary. I am on board for this revolution and I'm doing my best to support it, not only by buying a car, but by being a shareholder.

I would rather this revolution succeed, and to do so Tesla needs to come out with a spectacular car that everyone loves. If they produce a crappy car for $100k, they're going down and the revolution is over.

I say, let them take their time and make this car correctly so that we love the car, our word of mouth and test rides with friends and family fuel a frenzy, catapulting Tesla to profitability and thereby sustaining the electric revolution!

I would like my car tomorrow. But whether it comes "on time" in September, or not until next year (heaven forbid), I am willing to wait (it's torture) because I see the big picture.

Brian H | August 22, 2012

epley;
+2
Prezakly.

Electric Machete | August 22, 2012

Well said Epley.

kublai | August 22, 2012

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/238308173990223873/photo/1

I see approx. 6 cars ready for delivery!

jrabena | August 22, 2012

@Klaus, you should cancel your order so I can get my car sooner. What color and options did you order?

Klaus | August 22, 2012

@HaroldS, You're right, I too have $40k invested since upgrading. I was referring to my initial reservation in 2009. I agree with what you and others have said. Doesn't make me feel any better. I just thought that a little more info should be forth coming considering the wait and cash outlay. Nada. I'm left in the dark. At this point it's all guess work and that is frustrating.

Klaus | August 22, 2012

"jrabena@sughrue.com
@Klaus, you should cancel your order so I can get my car sooner."

In a pig's eye. I don't intend on giving $10 grand so easily. BTW, red, white interior, pano roof, 21" wheels and the jump seats.

JoeFee | August 22, 2012

Klaus, I feel your pain … we are down to the short strokes …exciting but nerve racking!

GlennH | August 22, 2012

Signed the MVPA on the 8-17 says deliver date is on/about Nov./2012-Dec.2012. I am an early P, P-11.

pilotSteve | August 22, 2012

@GlennH - that triangulates with what I was told: that all Sigs would be delivered by November 1st, so its great hearing some consistency.

As others have noted however we Sig purchasers will only get a 1-3 week (at most) time advantage over P deliveries. That is disappointing and some of us (me) would not have paid for Sig given such a small time advantage. I don't doubt that Tesla/Elon are probably disappointed as well, thats just how it worked out.

TikiMan | August 22, 2012

I've been noticing that most of the customer cars built to-date are all Peformance Sigs. I wonder if that means they are going to deliver the Peformance Sigs, before the regular Sigs?

Tesla229 | August 22, 2012

@TikiMan

That's been my contention all along...

pilotSteve | August 22, 2012

I have a non-perf Sig reserved. Talked with my advisor yesterday and asked if I could still upgrade to Performance Sig. He said yes, should not be a problem or affect my delivery date, but have to make that change before end of this week.

That indicates to me that Sigs (Perf or not) will be delivered in order rather than all Perf models first.

phb | August 22, 2012

I think there's something much simpler going on here. Folks with the kind of $$$ lying around that they can drop $40,000 on a reservation several years before the car is going to be available are also the kind of people who are willing to shell out the extra $ for the loaded performance model.

Now, I'm sure that there are exceptions to this and, given that this is the internet, someone is going to come forward and tell me I'm dumb because they're an early Signature Reservation holder and they're not loaded. Yes, I'm sure that there are exceptions.

Michael23 | August 22, 2012

Well it is a 100k car so what do you expect? However, I have encountered many people who have never spent this much on a car before with myself included. Also, the car should last a long time so that's why I'm getting performance. Otherwise, I could get a car just as fast for a lot less.

Volker.Berlin | August 22, 2012

+1 phb, my thoughts exactly (except for the "dumb" part ;-).

Brian H | August 23, 2012

Would definitely be an interesting ratio to know!

brianman | August 23, 2012

Regardless Klaus's concerns...

I'm -- perhaps morbidly -- curious to see who the first to ask Tesla point blank:

"My MVPA from ___ says December and my current ETA is now January+. Will Tesla take the high road and let me have my 'non-refundable' $10K back, or must I consider going the arbitration route?"

[For some, 2012 vs. 2013 matters.]

... and I'm even more curious how Tesla will react. I hope the person(s) that ask this question can and will share the response.

It will say a lot about how Tesla the company represents itself going forward.

Brian H | August 23, 2012

b-man;
You undermisestimate the power of fine print. I betcha that's covered.

Michael S | August 23, 2012

I'm sure you all read this already but:

http://www.siliconbeat.com/2012/08/22/tesla-builds-100th-model-s-but-pro...

So if its true S64 should have gotten its call by now.

Michael S | August 23, 2012

BTW: What are the "Special Signatures" some of you more astute posters have been referring to??? Sounds like "double secret probation" (ref: Animal House).....

Michael S | August 23, 2012

I guess I just ordered the "old fashioned model" State of the Art Cutting Edge First of its Kind $90,000 Electric Sedan.....

Timo | August 23, 2012

AFAIK roadster owners that get signature S are that.

Michael S | August 23, 2012

And no I did NOT get the performance package for my Signature (99). I have been driving a Roadster for over two years now and get my 0-60 fix through that...

Michael S | August 23, 2012

Okay so i'm stupid. What's "AFAIK"

mklcolvin | August 23, 2012

"As Far As I Know"

Michael S | August 23, 2012

Ah....(Man I'm old)...

Well, then I guess that's me because I have a Roadster???

NJS1207 | August 23, 2012

pilotSteve, I have a non-performance Sig reserved as well. Like you, I asked my local store manager earlier this week if it would still be possible to change to a performance model. He passed the question on to the ownership team in California, which said it was too late to make the change. My takeaway from the response is that the production process on my vehicle is reasonably far along. Anyone have a different read?

michaelwm | August 23, 2012

Did those who assume that their delivery date was "guaranteed" by the MVPA not bother reading it? There was only 3 pages of text, and there was a clearly-labeled section regarding delivery date:

Scheduled Delivery Date. The date set forth in this Agreement for delivery of the Vehicle is an estimated date, and does not represent an affirmation or promise that the Vehicle will be delivered to you on that exact date. We will not be liable for failure to deliver, or delay in delivering, the Vehicle that is covered by this Agreement where such failure or delay is due, in whole or in part, to any cause beyond our control, that is not the result of our negligence. We will notify you when your vehicle is ready for delivery, and, unless we are in breach of this Agreement, you hereby agree to schedule and take delivery of your vehicle within 30 days of such notification.

EricK | August 23, 2012

I'm P1084 and configured mine on August 9 and the sales rep indicated estimated delivery November 12

JoeFee | August 23, 2012

EricK | AUGUST 23, 2012
First time I have seen an exact date the “12th” for an estimated delivery!

JoeFee | August 23, 2012

@pilotSteve | AUGUST 22, 2012
"As others have noted however we Sig purchasers will only get a 1-3 week (at most) time advantage over P deliveries. That is disappointing and some of us (me) would not have paid for Sig given such a small time advantage.”

I was P469 and upgraded to S1092 — I asked what the delivery advantage was and was told “less than a month.” The time advantage was not a factor on my upgrade decision — once I was interested in a performance model, I went full boat to Sig Perf.

Michael23 | August 23, 2012

EricK How did you get that date? I am p427 and don't have one. I am told Dec last week. I'm confused!

Captain_Zap | August 23, 2012

Perhaps the date meant November 2012?

Teoatawki | August 23, 2012

The time advantage was a factor for me. I'm Sig #703. When I plunked down more than I ever paid for a whole car in my life for a "reservation", there were over 5800 production reservations. Assuming round numbers of 400 cars per week, for the sake of this discussion. After my car is complete, say 2 weeks for remaining US + CDN Sigs and 14.5 weeks to produce 5800 production cars.

So the advantage is at least 4 months, with other factors, like CDN production cars and (by then) perhaps overseas Sigs in the mix, it could easily be 6 months. And that assumes essentially full production speed from the day my car leaves the plant.

Brian H | August 23, 2012

@
EricK | August 23, 2012 new
.
I'm P1084 and configured mine on August 9 and the sales rep indicated estimated delivery November 12

As CapZap suggests, RU sure it isn't November '12 ?? Look for an apostrophe.

Butch | August 23, 2012

For reference, I am scheduled to take delivery of my Red Model S Performance, Tuesday, 8/28, in Denver. I am Special Signature #40 (own Roadster #433), and my Model S VIN is ...0037; I guess 3 reservation holders ahead of me either canceled, deferred, or were late getting their paper work in. This will be the first customer delivery in Colorado, after 2 Founders series delivered to Boulder. My son saw one of them on the street in Boulder last month.

I put my $40k down early (March 2009), and am happy that I did, so that I can take delivery next week. I wish that I could have had my Model S already, but am well aware all the hard work that it takes to design, build, test, and ramp up production for a complicated device like the Model S. The best thing that Tesla can do now to avoid problems, recalls, etc., is to ramp up production at a prudent rate.

Michael23 | August 23, 2012

Congrats! Post some pics when you get it! :)

Brian H | August 23, 2012

Pics, hell! Full HD video. Streamed live, if possible!
<9-)

Michael23 | August 23, 2012

EricK: I asked my rep about your date and he says this:

"We haven't issued any exact delivery dates. Any date, even as close as Nov 12th, is very much subject to change."

Michael37 | August 23, 2012

Klaus, believe me, I know what you mean. I've had a similar experience with my home remodel, but far worse. So many dates promised (very specifically) and then missed. Soon, though. Very soon, I think.

Your configuration is exactly what I would have chosen if I had been able to upgrade to Sig, except for the jump seats. If you just can't stand to wait anymore, well, by all means let me know... ;-)

BYT | August 23, 2012

@Butch, congrats and please report back on build quality and updates your experience from what have heard previous. Congrats again, I'm jealous... :)

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