When do you think we'll see one? In a decade?
I don't think we will. It will be possible, but in two years, once the Supercharger infrastructure span most of the US, it will be unneeded, especially since 95% of people drive less than 50 miles per day.
That's just my opinion though.
I agree that it might be unnecessary, I'd like at least a 350 miler though, just to be extra safe. What do you think would be the ideal range then?
Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE a 500 mile battery. I don't think they will come out with much larger battery packs. Im guessing 100kwh at the most.
Why I think that way:
Batteries will get cheaper, but Tesla wants to decrease costs and the cost of the vehicles. So I doubt they will use the drop in price of the batteries to pack MORE in a pack, and therefore raise the price of the pack right back to how much the 85 cost in the first place.
So Im guessing they might stick with 85kwh and just continue to have the cost of the pack drop, so they can, in turn, drop prices on their vehicles, leading to mass market adoption (eventually).
I think that the range of the hi end Model S/X will improve over time due to improvements in cost/KW-hr, higher energy density. Elon did indicate the possibility of the 500 mile battery sooner than later. Meanwhile, Tesla will optimize the structural design of Model S/X and reduce weight, and that should improve handling.
Driving in the highways in Texas where speeds are 75 mph over long stretches is not practical with just a 85 KW-hr. Anybody who has driven in the German Autobahn knows that the speeds there exceed 100 miles/hour routinely. 85 KW-hr is not going to last too long over there!
I think it will be like computer hard drives. I started using a 10MB in a IBM PC XT. I thought that was hot. Look at what they offer today... 1, 2, 3TB. Batteries do not progress at the same rate, still in 5 years, we could see a lot of progress.
As we can see from the Q1 quarter, range sells cars. Most of the customers favored the 85 KW-hr. Few wanted the 40 KW-hr.
The "500 miles" is ideal miles = 430 EPA or ~350 realistic miles.
That would be a 140 kWh battery... why would I buy it now if available
- 70% left after 10 years would give then still a 100 kWh battery
- SC would charge to 80% = 110 kWh at full speed before it tapers off - even with 40-50 kWh left I could add 60 kWh or close to 200 miles in 30 min.
- skipping a SC is now no brainer - if I stop anyway 15 min adds 100 miles.
- I can go to any place in the Sierra Nevada without finding charging in the woods
It would make distance driving in an EV fully level with gas powered cars.
Does anyone know what the breakdown is for 60 vs 85 kWh MS? The 40 kWh supposedly got only 4% of MS reservations. From the TM and TMC forums, I have a sense that there are more 85s than 60s. With so much willingness to buy the largest available battery, I think there's a sizable market for a 110+ kWh MS.
I guess we'll see "500 mile" battery for Model S in 3-4 years when is expected to see new generation of Li-ion battery for GenIII Tesla cars. Maybe even sooner. But definitelly don't expect it next year...
I think we will see a 500 mile battery once the energy density has gotten a bit better. Not in a base model but a premium option for the people who are willing to pay a lot extra.
If/when it comes, do you think TM will sell it as a spare part/upgrade option for existing MS?
ideal range 275 miles at 75 miles per hour with everything on and superchargers 150 miles apart. gen 11 model s will hit this mark, the superchargers will take some time. we can only hope the superchargers have that 150 mile distance by 2017. that's two hours on your butt. then it would be nice to walk around for about 10 to 15 mins. come back and have a full charge. there close?
Will be close, but I think so.
The material science & chemistry involved will probably be up to the task of increasing energy density by 1.6x to get us close to 500 miles/charge.
However, the physical teasting will take a while. No way Tesla puts a new energy system into their vehicles w/o full & complete testing.
How many times have you run out of gas? Rarely, probably never, because you plan accordingly, same situation here.
There will no doubt be some inconveniences experienced along the way, but these are greatly outweighed by the advantages of electric automobiles.
I agree that this may be some sort of premium option in about 10 years. Obviously TM would rather decrease the cost of the battery rather than its range as long as it stays over 200-250 miles. This would eventually become the standard in the future at some point though. Is that maybe 20 years away?
10? 20? Nope. Much sooner. I'd wager 5 years at most.
At Teslalive Elon said to expect every 4-5 years a step in battery technology - next jump will be in about 3 years, that is Gen3.
The technology for a "500 miles" battery for the model S will be there in 3 years... that is needed otherwise Tesla can not achieve the cost goals for the Gen3. If there will be an actual offering for the model S is a different question.
The "500 miles" battery ( ~350 miles realistic ) is the sweet spot and in 10-20 years that will be the most produced option.