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20th June "Live-Demonstration"

20th June "Live-Demonstration"

in the Shareholdermeeting, Elon hinted, that on 20th June there will not be just a announcement, but a "Live-streamed-demonstration"... my theory was, that it is the Model S 2.0. A technical demonstration for sure is a new piece of technology.

Any suggestions?
It seems not to be a swappable second supercapacitor-accu in the frunk. What could it be?

jimenez247 | June 5, 2013

This comment was the biggest news in my opinion. Am I the only one the was interested in the hint that their would be a live demonstration of charging the Model S in lest then 20 min? Would the demonstration show a fully depleted batter charge up in 10 min?

Or did I read to much into it...

Darmok | June 5, 2013

Agreed jiminez, I thought it was important. I am not a fan of the battery swapping concept, but if the demonstration goes along with the under your nose comment battery swapping would have to be high on the list of possibilities.

Bryan M. | June 5, 2013

I concur that it was the most interesting tidbit of information at the meeting. Everyone seems to be wrapped up around frunk swappable battery tech because of sec filings im not completely convince.(still in the realm of possibilities) I'll speculate that it will be a main battery swap at a service center which would only be exciting if they introduce a new higher capcity battery maybe 100-120kwh or more. Could be partly why Model X is delayed seems like it would definitely need more range. Just my opinion.

DouglasR | June 5, 2013

The comment was a lot of things. Information was not one of them.

Mark K | June 5, 2013

I'm going to invoke Spock -

Logically, what would necessitate a live demonstration to fully appreciate?

Higher capacity main pack? Negative Captain - that's a spec, you don't need to see it live.

4G? Ditto.

But to actually see an Al-Air pack dropped into the frunk in about a minute, and then speed off ....

That's dramatic. That's big news.

EVs will suddenly fill faster and go farther than gas. Those are the missing superlatives.

Seeing is believing.

Live long and prosper Elon. \\ ///

mdemetri | June 5, 2013

Mark K +1

Brian H | June 6, 2013

That's just Spockulation. >:p

stephen.kamichik | June 6, 2013

They will demonstrate a 20 minute charge from zero to full battery charge.

SamO | June 6, 2013

@stephen,

Can't be. The June 20th has to be "faster than filling your gas tank"

20 minute fast charge WOULD NOT qualify

J.T. | June 6, 2013

Doesn't it also have to be "right under your nose?"

Reli | June 6, 2013

maybe the under your nose is inductive charging in under 20 minutes... like the gas station comment he said earlier.. maybe im thinking to back to the futrue, ie the inductive charging is right under your nose!

hillcountryfun | June 6, 2013

Reli -

I've been thinking something similar and wondering if you can use induction at an energy level that would fill the pack in just a few minutes.

ORWA | June 6, 2013

I watched the live streaming of the shareholders meeting and Elon was answering a question from a shareholder about whether it was true you could charge the car faster than filling it up with gas. I believe the demonstration on June 20th is Elon at a Supercharger location and they show the range going from near 0 miles of range to half full in less than five minutes. I think adding extra battery packs to the frunk sounds gimmicky and not Elon's style.

ORWA | June 6, 2013

Also, this was a tweet from Elon back on May 9th. "There is a way for the Tesla Model S to be recharged throughout the country faster than you could fill a gas tank." This reaffirms my belief that the demonstration on June 20th will be a recharging demonstration at a supercharger.

AmpedRealtor | June 6, 2013

@ SamoSam,

Can't be. The June 20th has to be "faster than filling your gas tank"

I'm sure Tesla will have an online calculator, similar to its payment calculator, that will show how a 20 minute charge is actually a 5 minute charge once you subtract for the time distortion field around the car. Sorry, i couldn't resist! LOL :)

Mark K | June 6, 2013

Guys - you don't need a live demo to watch digits on your dash for 5 or 20 minutes.

They're done with SuperCharger announcements for now. It just doubled in speed (which is pretty darn awesome). Later, it will double again when battery buffers are in the Superchargers. But that won't happen for many months.

The quarterly report says they will have swap stations. I think you are about to see one, and the new frunk packs they will stock. ("Range Packs").

The fact that this is hard to visualize is exactly why a dramatic live demo is so smart. This will be a "shock" to the conventional wisdom about EVs being slow to refill, or having inferior range.

So we'll find out in 2 weeks. The uncertainty and guessing is a big part of the fun!

jat | June 6, 2013

To fill up in less time than a gas station, you pretty much have to have either some form of battery swap or perhaps a large enough bank of ultracapacitors that could absorb the charge quickly and then feed it out to the batteries as they can take it. The problem with that is they have about a 10th the density of batteries, so even if you only needed 40kWh storage in ultracapacitors, you would need 5x the volume of the current battery in ultracapacitors.

So, my bet is on some sort of battery-swap, which certainly would count as a live demonstration.

Atlantis | June 6, 2013

it is a "live demonstration"

- you need a "demonstration" where the name is not self-descriptive.
4G is self-descriptive.
battery kwhr or mileage is self-descriptive.
number of minutes it takes to charge is self-descriptive.
Model S v2 is not.
- the significance of "live" is that you are looking at a process, not a thing
Model S v2 is a thing.
Battery swapping is a process and and only vaguely self-descriptive. The process must be seen to be understood.

Bryan M. | June 6, 2013

someone needs to tweet Elon so we can rule out this swappable Al-Air battery theory. Why? That is so mind blowing that if true obviously game changing but if its not true major disappointment and whatever is shown would then be gimmicky no?

AmpedRealtor | June 6, 2013

Didn't Tesla just recently make a big supercharger announcement? I don't think that's it.

Elon showed a big grin on his face when he discussed his 6/20 announcement on CNBC, but he wouldn't give any hints. If it puts a smile on Elon's face, it has to be a big deal. This is NOT going to be Model S 2.0 simply because making an announcement like that is going to kill existing Model S sales - very bad for Tesla since Model S production is still ramping up. Model S 2.0, if they call it that, will probably be 3-5 years away.

I also don't believe this will be a range extending battery in the frunk. It seems like an impractical idea at this point in time, and when you compare the large surface area of the battery beneath the car, anything that would fit into the frunk would probably not provide enough power to offset the reduction in range caused by the additional weight. I'm just speculating here.

My bets are on a final, shipping version of Model X that will be shown off in all of its glory.

SamO | June 6, 2013

+1 @AmpedRealtor

+1 @jat

+1 Atlantis

+1 Mark (Really liked the term "range pack")

So we know this is going to be about "fasting than filling your tank" and these are the possibilities:

1. Fast swap 1-2 minutes either in conjunction with Superchargers or at Service Centers or elsewhere. Could announce larger battery size (120kwh) available as an "upgrade" to go with swap.

2. Ultracap/supercap/metal-air frunk "range pack". Purchased at Service Centers, Galleries or with Superchargers.

3. Fast charging. Step up from 120kw to 480kw and a 5 minute charge.

Any other possibilities?

J.T. | June 6, 2013

I'm remembering some indication the the "live" quality of the demonstration had an element of anxiety attached to it-- like something could go wrong. They'd know if some kind of frunk addition would add power, they'd know if a Superfast Supercharger would work, they'd know if version 2.0 is different. No risk in any of these. It might be more like some kind of swap. They might be practicing like a pit crew to get it done in under 5 minutes but sometimes they do and sometimes they don't. Failing after all the build up would be pretty embarrassing.

SamO | June 6, 2013

@jtodman

I've already sketched out a machine that could remove the fastners below the Model S in less than 30 seconds. Putting them back on in the same.

Whatever design I have, I'm sure Elon has something an order of magnitude more elegant.

If it is a swap, I'm guessing that it will require NO HUMAN INTERVENTION. Pull onto a lift, the battery is detached, and then new battery rolls into place, and a machine re-attaches.

Car is ready in 90 seconds (that's my guess). Since a gas station can actually fill a tank in about 2 minutes. Elon could improve his odds in the scenario by filling a large SUV (like his Audi Q7) which would take 3 minutes.

The demo could even happen at a gas station? Nah.

Bryan M. | June 6, 2013

I thought of that pit crew thing but that falls into the gimmicky category and not practical. I would get a good laugh at that. Investors and owners wouldn't find that to exciting or funny

AmpedRealtor | June 6, 2013

Announcing the Tesla Transporter... where they are going to beam Elon from San Mateo to South Africa in under 0.5 seconds. The anxiety is related to whether Elon is going to arrive in South Africa with all of his molecules intact.

dstiavnicky | June 6, 2013

I hope they don't charge in 20 minutes and then say that's faster than a gas station fill-up if you had to go in and pay in pennies... or maybe someone very slow is in front of you buying cigarettes and lottery tickets...
They did that once already with the "own for $500 month" crap.

I'm sure it's another small announcement as the Supercharger and faster charging announcement was last week.

If I had to hope for anything. I want AWD with a second motor up front with 700+ hp. Then a demonstration drag race against the Bugatti Veyron Sport. I would then immediately trade my current MS.

SamO | June 6, 2013

@dstiavnivky

I don't think this is going to be a speed-up in charge. Reason being that they JUST announced the step-up. If they announce another, people will say exactly what you said "WTF" unless it can happen in two minutes (which is likely not possible YET).

hillcountryfun | June 6, 2013

dstiavnicky -

I thought about the AWD for the 6/20 announcement because I know Elon was really careful NOT to announce that at the MT-COTY award in NY. But it seems pretty clear that the 6/20 announcement is related to "Tesla Model S to be recharged throughout the country faster than you could fill a gas tank"... We'll know 2 weeks from today!

jbunn | June 6, 2013

Elon takes a 20 foot pile of boxers and briefs and lights them on fire?

jat | June 6, 2013

@Amped - there is no way the wires in current Model S's could handle 480kW, much less the battery. Even with very low internal resistance, you are talking about dissipating enough heat to melt aluminum.

mrspaghetti | June 6, 2013

Or sets his own briefs on fire while wearing them?

AmpedRealtor | June 6, 2013

I FIGURED IT OUT (really)...

Take a look at Tesla's shareholder meeting video and fast forward to approximately the 40 minute mark. Elon is addressing a question regarding 20 minute charge and his tweet about re-fueling faster than a gas car. Elon directly answered that question and stated that 20 minutes is not the end of the story and to watch his demo on 6/20. It is CLEARLY related to charging. I believe the shareholder meeting video will lay this speculation to rest for anyone who watches it.

My personal speculation about the demo is that Tesla is going to pit a Model S against an ICE vehicle with comparable range in a race to see who can fill up faster. This would be an incredible illustration and would deserve and warrant a demo for the media. This will be a big deal, I think, as it will dispel one of the biggest criticisms of electric cars - charging time between stops.

Here is the link to the video page (scroll down for video and FF to approx. 40 minute mark): http://green.autoblog.com/2013/06/06/tesla-ceo-gets-emotional-over-nada-...

hillcountryfun | June 6, 2013

Humm, looks like induction might handle the amount of power/energy required for a "Hyper-charge" but it traditionally would require AC to accomplish. So, then you would need an onboard bridge to convert it to DC (and that amount of power) for loading directly into the pack...seems like lots of losses. Maybe something with lasers? Can't wait! He better not push the date back!!!

Bryan M. | June 6, 2013

Most would agree it doesn't take anywhere near 20mins to fill a gas tank. @AmpedRealtor Elon saying 20mins is not the end, is why many feel a fast swap of some kind is in order. It does not make sense to announce the increase from Supercharger 90kw to 120kw only to do a demo of charging even faster. Also to have to do this with an ICE fill up demonstration might fall on the gimmicky side.

joshnd03 | June 6, 2013

Elon Musk, Bill Gates, and Sergey Brin are forming a cover band. Elon is lead vocal/guitar, Bill is backup/bass, and Sergey is drums/keyboard. Their first cover release is Lightning Crashes. This is their "Live" demonstration.

We are all in for a real treat!

TI Sailor | June 6, 2013

How about this guess:

Split the battery into two banks with separate inputs but a single output. Use 2 x 120kW hoses to fill each "bucket". Charge times will be roughly halved if both sides are unplugged when max amps start tapering off.

My thinking: Boats use multiple banks of batteries all the time. On my sailboat I use one bank to start the diesel (when I must motor rather than sail) and one for my "house" needs. Both batteries feed to single panel. While a switch is used to make sure I don't drain my starting battery at the same time I'm draining my house battery, that switch wouldn't be needed on the MS.

Whether both ports should be on the same side of the car or on opposite sides is subject to debate. Also, beside hardware issues, there are probably other aspects I'm missing.

oildeathspiral | June 6, 2013

I was at the meeting and as I recall the question was regarding Elon's tweet about charging faster than filling a gas tank AND the battery swap item mentioned in the 10q.

As a side note, it was very frustrating to have a number of people ask either the same old questions or very basic questions (e.g. how much does each supercharger cost?). Time ran out and at least 10 people didn't get to ask Elon their questions. We don't get many chances to ask Elon questions and I feel that some of that time was squandered. I hope next year more people will do their homework so we can all glean some info that isn't on the website or in the 10q/10k.

daoops | June 6, 2013

Ti sailor: I am thinking the same way, asked a while back if there could be a hidden charge port behind the license plate or similar. Would also solve the problem if you charge at a public charger and do not wish to reverse in. No owner seem to have seen one so far, but I like the idea. 2x120kwh and no need to pay (takes some time), would that be faster than filling an ICE, pay and go?

I agree it falls on the fact that there is only one charge port on the car. But I support your idea :)

DouglasR | June 6, 2013

Is there anything to say this demonstration must be something that applies to today's Model S, or that we will be able to use it on our existing cars? If Elon were to demonstrate some not-too-distant future technology, the range of possibilities widens. Dramatically faster supercharging, main pack swap, auxiliary pack swap -- all become more feasible. This would boost the stock, but not necessarily satisfy existing owners.

Bryan M. | June 6, 2013

@DouglasR if you combine what Elon tweeted about charging faster than filling up with gas and the right under your nose tweet most have concluded that its something that can take affect immediately but thats also a possiblity of demonstrating something thats in the foreseeable future just like demo of Model X 3yrs early.

kenaird | June 6, 2013

From page 38 of the 10Q:

Other factors that may influence the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, and specifically electric vehicles, include:

...

our capability to rapidly swap out the Model S battery pack and the development of specialized public facilities to perform such swapping, which do not currently exist but which we plan to introduce in the near future;

TI Sailor | June 6, 2013

@DouglasR - I agree the demo may demonstrate future technology which will only help current owners if their cars are upgraded, ala P85 > P85+.

The biggest problem I have with main battery swaps is location. It would seem most mall/outlet center locations would not/could not have this functionality. That possibly leaves a few SC locations, but mostly points toward a (more likely) Service Center function. However, I don't feel many owners will think it's efficient or "faster" to leave their intended route and detour to a service center for a swap.

Induction? It's already being done for buses, but only for short legs on dedicated routes. Not sure this is ready for primetime as far as long distances are concerned, but who knows?

Something in the frunk? Maybe, but the boxy space seems destined for AWD hardware. I don't believe lack of current (sic) hardware rules out another replaceable charge source located nearby.

How about the area where the rear child seats fold into the floor? Don't have a clue. It seems like it might compromise the rear crumple zone, but maybe not since it's so low. Also, what about people who actually have the child seats?

I love the speculation and believe Elon saved this for last for that very reason. It gets people talking and thinking about Tesla's future.

JPPTM | June 6, 2013

If any of you have gone on the factory tour to see how the current Model S is built, the very heavy battery pack is loaded onto a 'self-driving' cart that moves under the chassis and is lifted into position. Multiple workers then not only bolt this into place (about 15 bolts) but also have to connect electrical harnesses/cabling and cooling lines. This is not an obviously fully automatable process now...maybe with engineering mods it could happen in the future.

kenaird | June 6, 2013

"the Model S battery pack" sounds like the main pack. See timestamp 41:39 in the National Geographic video of the factory. Looks like the car is supported by the 4 jacking points and the battery pack is raised in a single motion and bolted in place with vertical bolts. A robot to do that and swap the pack to a charging rack seems feasible, and might not add too much to the $300,000 cost of a solar supercharging station. There are obvious potential issues, given that the main battery pack is structural.

kenaird | June 6, 2013

Perhaps more importantly, the the main pack loses some of its ability to hold a full charge over time, and that loss is absorbed by the original purchaser. Things could get complicated if the battery pack becomes a traded commodity via swapping stations, although that could actually be a big marketing advantage. Old batteries could be taken from the charging stations and refurbished, so owners never have to worry about battery degradation with time.

kenaird | June 6, 2013

Regarding location, I think all the supercharging stations probably have at least two
parking spaces. One space out of a pair could be replaced by the robot and storage rack.
It would be a net win, given the much shorter time each car would be in the remaining space.

kenaird | June 6, 2013

Better yet, just bury the whole works under each parking space.
The stack of batteries would be under the parking lot in front of the space.
The car drives itself into position using feedback from camera(s) in the station with
a wifi link, jacks emerge from the ground at the four lift points to precisely position
the car, a nut driver rises under each nut, unscrews and lowers the battery below ground,
a robot shuttles it sideways on rails, and reverses the process with a new battery.
You never have to leave the car.

The only complication is the electrical and cooling connections, but a smart robot
arm might be able to handle that.

olanmills | June 6, 2013

One thing they could demonstrate is a "race" between LA and SF between a Model S and a gas car. With a supercharger and carpool access, the Model S might beat a gas car, which also has to stop for gas on the trip.

DouglasR | June 6, 2013

Kleist made a comment in a different thread that a main-pack battery swap may not be for everybody. What if the infrastructure for swapping batteries were only in urban areas, where many people live in condos and apartments without access to a 240V power source? Further, what if TM were to offer a $5,000 upgrade that would guarantee you unlimited swaps over an eight year period -- so you don't have to worry about charging at home, installing charging facilities, or about getting somebody else's used up battery, because TM would always provide batteries with reasonable capacity (e.g., 250 miles of rated range)? The swaps would only happen in service centers, and thus would be most interesting to urban dwellers, but it could certainly solve the problem of limited home charging opportunities. It would also be well worth it, because people would save on their electric bills and on installing an outlet. Indeed, between swapping and superchargers, you would never need to buy electricity to charge your car (although, for convenience, you still might want to install charging facilities). And at the end of eight years, you would still have a practically new battery. I think this could open the market to all sorts of new buyers, particularly in Europe.

ajamison | June 6, 2013

I am waiting for someone to make a car that runs on tap water! If you figure out that one let me know. Until then what ever he has in store for the 20th I am sure will be amazing

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