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What caused TSLA stock to go up/down today?

What caused TSLA stock to go up/down today?

Hoping this thread might pick up steam as TSLA stock goes through some amazing intra-day and open/closing swings due to the large short interest (I'm assuming).

For instance: Yesterday the stock dipped really low at closing so I bought. Today it jumped back up and I sold for a healthy profit.

Why did the stock dip yesterday and then rise so much today? I didn't see any news that would justify it.

RNB | January 24, 2013

Ignore price for a couple of years, it will take care of itself. Put it on the shelf.

Brian H | January 24, 2013

Up to $37 at the close. Many buys, not just a big solo trade.

RNB; what fun is that?

GoTeslaChicago | January 28, 2013

Between October 31st and January 15th the short interest has gone down about 5 million shares.

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest#.UQagY6VE-4Q

During that same time the stock price has gone up about $5 from about $28 to $33. If the stock continues to go up $1 for every million shares covered, then it has $26 more dollars of upside potential from the Jan 15th level!!!

A more realistic prediction is that the short interest won't go to zero, but might be cut in half in the near term. In that case a $13 advance from $33 to $46 or $47 a share is projected. At the current price of $37.80 we are 1/3rd of the way there already.

Brian H | January 28, 2013

At the moment, $38.30! Lots of buying pressure...

Brian H | January 28, 2013

Closed over 38, up to 38.67 after hours. Highest ever?

Brian H | January 28, 2013

No, I see the 52-wk range has 39.95 as the high.

GoTeslaChicago | February 13, 2013

Stock bouncing back strongly today after NY Times selloff. This could be the reason:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-price-target-raised-45-134155163.html

Michael S | February 13, 2013

My 2 cents:
I own a Model S. I owned a roadster before that. The problem with reviewers (NY Times or not) is that they are rookies to the technology. I suggest human error on the part of the rookie reviewer. I have been driving electric cars for over three years now. I can not stress enough how much better e-cars are over old ICE's. Just drive one (a Tesla at least) and the argument is settled. Stopping to charge every 20-30 minutes every couple of hours on long road trips is what drivers should do anyway. I have taken my Models S from San Diego to San Francisco and back 3 times already. Best road trips EVER. I you don't want one, don't buy one. Just don't knock something you don't know anything about. However, when you have a bully pulpit like a NY times reporter does, you really should do a little more research before you write an article. I guess the lesson is here that if you are a Luddite, you shouldn't be writing articles about new technology.

jk2014 | February 13, 2013

Great buy op before it breaks 40 resistance. Those that understand Tesla and Model S are doing this right now...

Brian H | February 13, 2013

Yes; the article was a scurrilous plot by the longs to provide a buying opportunity! >:( >:p

KevinR.co.us | February 13, 2013

+1 Michael S

Brian H | February 13, 2013

Noobs' reactions are so ... nooby!

nickjhowe | February 15, 2013

Stocks bouncing around again today, so jumped in a bought some more. Missed the 3% dip earlier in the week, but I'll take the 1% it is down today.

rmbod | February 21, 2013

DId I miss some major announcement (setback)? The stock is falling hard and fast today!!

TeslaModelSOwner | February 21, 2013

rmbod....earnings miss although revenue up is the cause for the swing

Carefree | February 21, 2013

Q4 financials were not perceived as positive but as usual the bean counters are focusing on the wrong numbers:-) I bought more shares this morning.

bradslee | February 21, 2013

@Carefree, I did too. If you admired MS and TM, you should be greedy when others fear.

nickjhowe | February 21, 2013

Bank Of America downgraded Tesla stock to underperform and set a target price of $30.... Merrill Lynch also downgraded them.

The free fall in the price triggered the short sale circuit breaker (fortunately). Looks like a buying opportunity again.

Sudre_ | February 21, 2013

You have to remember that BofA and the like are out to make money off their investments. As long as Tesla is not returning dividends they are going to sell off shares to make profit and buy them back when the stock goes down. It's fine with me. Like many here I am keeping what I have. With any luck it will be my early (55) retirement plan.

GoTeslaChicago | February 21, 2013

I've noticed a certain cockiness on the forums and elsewhere recently regarding Tesla's prospects. Anyone who has followed the markets long knows that when cockiness gets too high, a slap down is usually close at hand. Also the potential of a double top at 40 led me to sell yesterday. Planning to buy back soon.

Yeah, I know, it would have looked more prescient if I had posted this yesterday.

Brian H | February 21, 2013

So, GTCarnac, what was the question in the envelope?

GoTeslaChicago | February 26, 2013

Bought back in today, $5.05 a share lower than where I sold it. In other words, was able to buy back about 15% more shares than I had before. Why did I do it? First of all there appears to be pretty good support around the $34 area. Second, why get greedy? I made 15% in 4 days. That's equivalent to several years return in a savings account or bonds. That should make me feel good enough even if Tesla still goes lower for a while.

ak-tually55 | February 26, 2013

Unless you lose the amount you made when you sold shares before the Q4 report. Almost 9% down that day, over 2% up next day, 4% down yesterday, and barely up for the day with DOW over 115 points. In fact, I think today was the most scary day after the quarterly report. In the long term, TSLA should do well, but I would not have bought it today.

GoTeslaChicago | March 12, 2013

Tesla short interest has gone up 5.5 million shares in the last month and is at a new all time high level.

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest#.UT9ffaX4DRo

The shares I own long at Schwab have been loaned out to short sellers in exchange for a 4% per annum payment, backed by a letter of credit, so there is no risk to the lender.

It's like being invested in a stock that pays a 4% dividend while you watch it go up.

A breakout above 40 seems imminent. Should be interesting days/weeks ahead.

Brian H | March 12, 2013

Are the shorts doubling down? Do they think the reservation flow is faltering? Seems like "fools and their money" time, to me.

Sudre_ | March 12, 2013

Sometimes I think investment firms like BOA can short the stock then give a bad Tesla review and downgrade the company to cash in whenever they want.

Just wait.... Some large firm will soon be coming up with an excuse/report about why they are downgrading Tesla and the stock will drop again on it's usual roller coaster ride.
At least in general it is slowly working up higher and higher.

drp | March 12, 2013

All time high territory. I wouldn't buy it

Brian H | March 14, 2013

Wow, a buck and a half drop today, down to $37.50!! Any news that could have caused that?

More buying opportunity, I guess.

Sudre_ | March 14, 2013

I already mention the news a few posts up. Someone wants to make a quick 3-5mill by selling non-shorted shares they bought at $35 then getting the shares back when their short kicks in. Not to mention about half the people on this forum sell their shares whenever it gets close to 40. We've all seen the posts. Nothing wrong with making a little money.

GoTeslaChicago | March 14, 2013

I must be in the half that didn't sell! (this time)

I didn't because I figure sooner or later, it's going to make it thru $40 and then keep going for several more dollars to the next technical target of $46 to $48.

GoTeslaChicago | March 14, 2013

Also I didn't sell at $40 because I believe you shouldn't go back to the well too many times.

mahesh.johari | March 14, 2013

I think the problem is we aren't getting enough data around reservations, and people are assuming that means reservations are slowing. Seems to be a real problem in Europe where the recent reservations are down to 5-6 per day and the prices are very very high due to VAT, import duties, and shipping.

Gas is so expensive in Europe I'd expect more European buyers to step forward especially if gas prices keep climbing.

ak-tually55 | March 14, 2013

Worst day after the Q4 report with really no news (at least not found on the net) and lower volume, and it keeps dropping... Henrik Fisker out of Fisker or Model X delay until late 2014 somehow catching up? Probably not.

Oh well, it is a bit like a casino, just with better odds, perhaps.

ak-tually55 | March 14, 2013

Pure speculation and not a fact: maybe somebody found out about new stock offering before it is announced to the public. I obviously have no knowledge if it even happens any time soon. Just a thought.

L8MDL | March 14, 2013

It is JUST like a casino - never invest anything you cannot afford to lose. Looks like shorts covering - they'll feed on each other for a bit, then the 1st quarter results in April/May. There was also some insider action taking some profit. Doesn't seem to want to break 40 though

Brian H | March 14, 2013

Short-covering drives prices up, not down, AFAIK.

L8MDL | March 15, 2013

In a "pure" sense that is true, however, shorts will follow the market and when the stock is lowest they strike. That causes an uptick, and then they wait for those without much backbone to sell on fear. The stock goes down, shorts strike again. Today is a good example - TSLA has been down as much as $1.21 over yesterdays 5% loss, and volume is WAY UP. Short covering continues, as almost 1/2 the stock is shorted when I last checked.

vgrinshpun | March 15, 2013

Big fish splashing in the pond...

vgrinshpun | March 15, 2013
GenIIIBuyer | March 15, 2013

Interesting way of looking at the stock: At the current $4B valuation, it costs $200,000 to own 1/20,000th of Tesla Motors. Since 20K Models S deliveries in 2013, you could view that as getting the profits from the sale of one car this year. Not a bad deal if gross margins reach 25%.

Of course, the real potential is down the road. At 80,000 cars a year you're up to 5 cars a year. ASP of 50K (mix of GenIII,S,X), and 25% margins grosses 50K profit. Once again, not bad.

GenIIIBuyer | March 15, 2013

*At 100,000 cars a year

c.bussert67 | March 15, 2013

GenIIIbuyer,
Your name is exactly why I have tesla stock. Since the S has tapped me out, I'm hoping I can gain enough with the stock to get my wife a GenIII to replace her aging car.
Only thing bummin me out now is the delay of the X. Was hoping to get GenIII by 2015...
Stock should only be more powerful as time goes by, but her car isn't aging the same way.

GenIIIBuyer | March 19, 2013

CnJsSigP,

Glad you like the name! Surprised it wasn't taken already. I also am long the stock. I don't recall having ever seen a company in its infancy that is operating from a best in class market position in such a large market.

Aren't even many blogs that follow the company yet. What do you think of my earnings estimate for Q1.. http://tesla-insider.com/2013/03/q1-2013-earnings-estimate/

I think Q1 will definitely be profitable due to 85kWh and 60kWh mix. Q2 may be slight lose due to 40kWh deliveries.

Brian H | March 19, 2013

GenIII was never due by 2015. No statement delaying it beyond 2016 has been issued.

cprenzl | March 19, 2013

Sorry GenlllBuyer, Maybe I'm not getting it but, 16% gross margin would only amount to about 69 million in profit, not 119 million... I also would like to add that the gross margin will most likely be around 14% based off of my surveys the average car cost is about 92k with options (not including 40kwh) also they would not lose anymore money in Q2 because of producing 40kwhs... Their have also been reports of 475 cars per week now, so I would no consider 4500 conservitive and I would expect now 5700 produced and 5100 delivered which brings the revenue up a lot, and I expect a either a Non- gaap pprofit of 10cents of a Gaap profit of up to 5 cents. Just a couple estimates

vgrinshpun | March 19, 2013

Cprenzl, add $50 M in ZEV credits to $69 M to get total of $ 119 M

chadrchristensen79 | March 19, 2013

When do u guys expect Tesla to get to the 25%margin
They want. Any thoughts?

GenIIIBuyer | March 20, 2013

+1 vgrinshpun, add $50 M in ZEV credits to $69 M to get total of $ 119 M

cprenzl, I agree that the 4,500 deliveries is looking conservative, I just went with the guidance given on the Q4 call. If ZEV credit pricing holds up more than I anticipated and 5100 are delivered there is a chance for an upside surprise close to $0.40. That would be a best case scenario for the quarter though. Would love to see the short's reaction to that headline..

GenIIIBuyer | March 20, 2013

cprenzl, And I really appreciate the feedback, thanks!

chadrchristensen79, if they don't try to go over 500 cars/week this year then I think Q4 2013. However, if the reservation book is high enough later in the year I think they'll make another production increase push that could delay reaching the 25% gross margins in 2013.

GoTeslaChicago | March 25, 2013

Some good information in this article:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1296941-tesla-still-accelerating-hard?so...

"Life is about to get a lot worse for the shorts for other reasons. A reader alerted me to a little cited article in the Westfield Republican, where Tesla's supplier Jamestown Plastics announced that it is currently fabricating and shipping 500 units per week. Jamestown Plastics make the liner for the Model S's forward trunk, or 'frunk'... and last time I checked there's only one of those per car."

And:

"500 units/wk is 26,000 units/yr, and that is some bad news if you're short Tesla. Worse news is that, come Autumn, Jamestown is expecting deliveries to increase to 650/week; or 33,800/year."

Latest short interest figures will be released late March 26th. Probably at a new all time high. Looks like that short squeeze is getting closer.

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