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Cancellation Percentage

It looks like cancellation percentage is very high. Otherwise how can you explain 12,000s delivery in April-May ?

riceuguy | 12 January, 2013

There have been more than 3000 deliveries thus far. With the extra shifts already in place, Tesla is likely at about 500 cars/week or more. Assuming that you include all of May, that's about 21-22 weeks x 500 cars/week =10,000 - 11,000 more cars for a total of 13,000 - 14,000 cars.

ylyubarsky | 12 January, 2013

That would be nice but if you look on VIN numbers from the middle of December until today, the picture doesn't look as bright

ThomasN | 12 January, 2013

Troll

Alex K | 12 January, 2013

@ylyubarsky| JANUARY 12, 2013: That would be nice but if you look on VIN numbers from the middle of December until today, the picture doesn't look as bright

VIN numbers are in the 32xx+ range. Where should VIN numbers be to make the picture look brighter?

Cattledog | 12 January, 2013

Yes, I think someone postulated 10%-12% a while back, which is a pretty damn good conversion rate of 88%-90%! I think they are on target to remarkableness!

www.teslamodels.wordpress.com

riceuguy | 12 January, 2013

Agree with Alex...VINs up over 3500 are in delivery process now, so likely well over 4k at least partially built (i.e., by end of month should be >5k produced and >4k delivered.

ylyubarsky | 12 January, 2013

This VIN number issue is so strange that I think nobody can explain how those VINs come up. December 18 two buyers received two VIN numbers. Look at this

P3853 Just given VIN 3062!

olanmills | DECEMBER 18, 2012
I just got my VIN, 2596.

The same day more than 400 numbers difference.

More than that Alex K says that we are in 3200s. Can you explain how could we get 3062 VIN number on December 18-th and almost a month later we are in 3200s.

Any explanation? Particularly somebody said we are making 500 a week.
So, any explanation?

jk2014 | 12 January, 2013

Batch production to maximize output. Everyone with 85s, black, etc... Will get cars first and so forth. Also, QA on some vehicles take more time than others so vin notification jumps around. All in all, the train has to move forward. Got to produce. It will all work out in the end. Wait till conf call on feb 11.

gregv64 | 12 January, 2013

"That would be nice but if you look on VIN numbers from the middle of December until today, the picture doesn't look as bright"

Looking a the delivery spreadsheet, a month ago people were taking factory delivery of cars with vins mostly arount the 1500-1600 range, and today around 3100-3200. That's 1600 a month or about 400 a week, but that's a trailing indicator. It doesn't mean they aren't at 500 a week now.

riceuguy | 12 January, 2013

Sorry, highest VINs I have seen are in the 3400s, but that's only 100 off. The other VIN issue is that many people are getting their VINs by requesting them proactively, so 29XX just got their VIN # (didn't elect delivery before 12/31), but so did 34XX who called in to get theirs!

gregv64 | 12 January, 2013

People getting VINs isn't a good way to look at it. Some people have been given their VIN just before delivery and others really early. That's a communication issue, not a production one. Look at the VINs as they are completed, since that's what counts for production.

DTsea | 12 January, 2013

Well, assuming VIN 3200 constructed third week december (for year end delivery), there are 22 weeks between then and the fourth week of May.

At 400 cars per week, that would be 8800 cars.

3200 + 8800 = 12000.

Why is this math hard to work out?

riceuguy | 12 January, 2013

@DTsea , exactly!

tork | 12 January, 2013

I've seen VINs in the 3500+ range. But even so, what's your point? Are you an investor? potential investor? You don't even know what the ratio of 40/60/85 is. Any numbers you get are speculation unless you happen to know some inside information. I don't think you're trolling but I certainly don't think you have sufficient information to come out and make that assumption.

ylyubarsky | 12 January, 2013

I am just trying to get true numbers and I started this thread to understand how high is the cancellation percentage.
By the way gregv64 - this is for you:
andex23 | DECEMBER 16, 2012
P3404, VIN 2358 picked up today at 10am in Fremont. Home is Orange County, CA.
This is the real VIN number and factory pick up.
I am just trying to understand how many cars TM produces a week and is it a reality that 13,900 will get a delivery in April. It's not matching any calculations.

jk2014 | 12 January, 2013

They will clean out all reservation holders pre-2013 by end of Q3. I think the secret surprise year end (fy2013) goal is 30% margin (starting with price increase res holder deliveries) and significant number of Model Xes ready to go... The second shift is not only about the MS my friends...

DTsea | 12 January, 2013

Well first it was 12000 now you say 13900. You are aware they skip people who have DEFERRED (not necessarily cancelled) and don't get a delivery window if the option they want such as 40kWh or conventional suspension isnt available.

Clearly, some cars took a while to actually deliver. But when you say 'real' VIN you imply the 3200 is not real. But that was Dec 16. At 400 per week, 2500 + 800= 3300 by year end.

Again, nice simple elementary school math. Nothing up my sleeve...

archibaldcrane | 12 January, 2013

Speaking of which, how long does it take to get cancelled reservation money back? I cancelled a reservation on Dec. 26th and still haven't gotten my refund.

GoTeslaChicago | 12 January, 2013

My cancellation guesstimate is 25% of first 10k, 20% of next 10k, and 10% after that.

ylyubarsky | 12 January, 2013

archibaldcrane You are in the wrong thread

ylyubarsky | 12 January, 2013

DTsea. I see that you have a good math education but look on this and you will see that your math is a little off.

December 16. VIN 2358 pick up

january 14 - exactly 4 weeks. It means that by your 400 a week estimate. Monday afternoon VIN number should be 3958.

Will it be ???

jk2014 | 12 January, 2013

Dude, picking up and number produced are two very different numbers. You are going to have a hearts track worry about this... If you can do it, wait till feb 11. Of not continue on at the risk to your sanity...

ylyubarsky | 12 January, 2013

What is February 11 ?

jk2014 | 12 January, 2013

Earnings call

Enoch_Root | 12 January, 2013

<>

34xx VINs were completing production this past week, based on the anecdote that my 3440 VIN was to complete yesterday (I do not know if it did in fact complete or not, but that's the ballpark of where they are today.)

The reason this number is about 500 off of your projection is that the Fremont factory took the first week of January on break after working their asses off through December. Incorporating that fact into your math and you will find the 400/wk production pace and the projected delivery range of May for 12,0xx VINs works with very limited cancellations. As for 13,900 VINs, they would make sense on the math if cancellations were in the 10-15% range, or if production was closer to 500/wk than 400/wk.

ylyubarsky | 12 January, 2013

That sounds like a fair explanation. Let's see in a month if your explanation is good.

DTsea | 12 January, 2013

Apparently Enoch_root also had a good math education.

My point, ylyubarsky, was not to impugn your arithmetic skills (thanks for giving me the opportunity to use 'impugn' in a sentence, good scrabble word) but to point out that the projection for April or May does not imply a high cancellation rate. This is because-
1. Fits with 400 cars a month
2. There are lots of reasons why the res sequence numbers are being delivered way out of order so seeing high seq numbers delivered doesnt tell you anything about cancellations. There could be deferrals, or Tesla could choose to preferentially produce the higher price vehicles for cash flow or other reasons, or there could be features not in production, or part shortages.... on and on.

So, you can't use a simple res number vs VIN comparison to determine the cancellation rate. Not yet anyway.

A careful perusal of the annual report might give a hint, from cash flow discrepancy due to returned deposits.

ylyubarsky | 13 January, 2013

I accept all your explanations. But I think that VIN numbers reflect a quantity of vehicles produced. I am not trying to convince you that the cancellation rate is 50%. Not at all. I am just trying to understand myself what's going on behind the scenes and when should I expect my car if the same sequence continue.
Imagine that Enoch_Root is right and TM took a week off ( which I doubt ). They could slow down a little but to stop the production for a week ? Unheard of. It's ok. I will come back to this issue in the middle of February and we'll compare VIN numbers from December 16, 2358 and February 15. I will wait together with everybody else. Hope it will give us a clear picture.

Brian H | 13 January, 2013

yl; Week off was announced by TM, notwithstanding your doubts.
DTsea; 500/wk, not 400/month.

Jcmason | 13 January, 2013

My DS also told me that the factory took the first week of Jan off, after working their butts off for the few weeks leading up to that. My VIN 3450 is being shipped this weekend.

gocken1 | 13 January, 2013

I believe some of the cars has issues in the final quality check and had to go back for rework. This would make an earlier VIN show up at a later delivery date. Taking the "December 16. VIN 2358 pick up" without looking at the other deliveries during the time may not give you an accurate look into production numbers.

TeslaModelSOwner | 13 January, 2013

The other way of looking at this is that they have exceeded 19k reservations and are signing up folks at a rate of about 600 reservations per week, all according to Tesla rep.

DTsea | 13 January, 2013

Brian H- yes that was a typo, I meant 400 per week (and that's what's in my math).

I know lots of posters have speculated about rates above 400/wk based on adding shifts at the factory... but I haven't seen Tesla quote anything above 400; so I am assuming that is the critical parts and materials order quantity constraint (meaning they have ordered 400 cars/wk worth of parts.

Brian H | 15 January, 2013

One line worker was quoted a few weeks ago saying they were doing 80/day. That's 560/wk., during the 7 da/wk push. But you're right, they may have outrun parts of their parts chain. JIT manufacturing is a beach.

ylyubarsky | 19 January, 2013

I want to come back to this thread after 5 days of silence. There were a lot of people explaining that the cancellation percentage is very low and easily explained why I will get my car with # 14,200+ number in May. But if the cancellation percentage is as low as everybody is saying, how come 12,000+ numbers are getting their cars next month? Every model but Red color are in production. How can you explain it?

Carefree | 19 January, 2013

I can't figure it out either. I am Res# 12,136 and I am supposed to get my car in the next 3 weeks although I did not hear a word yet. It seems illogical that we should get the cars already when the math does not add up.

pb32 | 19 January, 2013

Dude chill out. Just be thankful you are not waiting as long as others here to get the car. Hell for selfish reasons I'd be happy if the guy in front of me cancels. That means the possibility I get my car sooner.

TimJ | 19 January, 2013

@ylyubarsky Lots of reasons, configs with regular suspension, cars with read, they are only building 60kwh and 85kwh, batching for efficiency, etc.

SD Supercharger | 19 January, 2013

@TimJ-
Even with your arguments, how many people ordered red ? How many 40 KwH batteries? According to other threads----not many. I think that people who have concerns have a valid argument. Even with batching, the number progression seems to be going along very quickly and it is hard to figure out how they have progressed to the numbers so fast. I hope this is justified by the high production rate of 560/wk.

gregv64 | 19 January, 2013

First, even if there were a lot of cancellations of earlier reservations I don't think it matters as long as the new reservation rate is high. But I also don't like it when facts are misstated while trying to make an argument. The configurations not being built yet are Red, 40kWh and standard suspension. While I agree that it appears that not many people are ordering the 40kWh, I haven't seen any stats on what percentage are ordering red or standard suspension.

Also, I believe there are quite a few people still "on the fence". They haven't finalized yet, but it's unclear whether they will cancel or finalize when forced with the price increase.

General production deliveries started around the beginning of December. To the end of March is 4 months. At 20,000 per year that would be around 6,600 cars built. If production went higher though, they could get to 7-8 thousand cars. It looks like they will get to reservations double that, so the delayed options plus cancelations may total 50% (less with higher production). What about 10% 40's, 10% red, 5% standard suspension and 25% cancellations (including people who canceled and rereserved to delay when they would get the car). We know 1000 people had canceled by the end of September.

It's all guesses, though.

Brian H | 19 January, 2013

And NONE of the 40kWh will arrive before the end of March. And the European reservations will only be beginning to trickle out about then.

The Feb 11 Y/E report is going to be fascinating!

GreenDot | 19 January, 2013

I agree with gregv64 - I was in the a reservation holder in the mid 4000's. I deferred when I first got the invite as I wanted to lease. In speaking with Tesla, I got the impression that a lot of people wanted to lease and therefore the deferral percentage was a decent rate.

Brian H | 19 January, 2013

GD;
Ah! Yes, lease deferrals vs. cancellations; interesting distinction. Thanks for the pointer/thought/observation!